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气象:2014,40(7):796-805
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一种定量降水预报误差检验技术及其应用
(1.国家气象中心,北京 100081;2.云南省勐海县气象局,勐海 666200)
Application of a Verification Method on Bias Analysis of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
(1.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;2.Menghai Meteorological Station of Yunnan, Menghai 666200)
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投稿时间:2013-05-22    修订日期:2013-10-21
中文摘要: 面向对象检验技术是定量降水预报误差分析方法之一,通过对某一降水过程进行分离,实现对其落区、量级等预报误差的定量化分析。基于面向对象的检验方法和天气系统识别技术,本文利用实况观测资料、ECMWF全球数值模式产品,以2012年汛期西南地区5个典型强降水天气过程作为检验对象,对其降水及天气尺度影响系统1~10 d模式预报误差进行了定量化分析。分析表明:在中短期时效内,模式均对西南地区雨带位置预报偏北、偏西,中期时效内偏差更显著,雨带主轴上70%以上的点预报较实况偏北在2°以内,偏西约3°以内;预报的大雨及以上量级降水量较实况偏弱;模式1~2 d预报的极值分布与实况较为接近,随着预报时效延长,预报的极值较实况明显偏小;模式预报的小雨及以下量级的降水范围较实况偏大,对大雨以上量级的降水范围较实况明显偏小。对于四川盆地而言,预报的切变线较零场偏西0.5°~3°。低空急流预报偏西0.5°~1.5°;低空急流强度预报偏差具有季节差异。
Abstract:Object oriented verification method, which analyzes the bias of location, rain volume for a rainfall event, is one of the techniques for quantitative precipitation forecast verification.Based on the object oriented verification method and weather system auto identification techenique, the errors of the quantitative precipitation forecast and synoptic scale system of high resolution version of the ECMWF medium range forecast model for 1-10 d of 5 typical severe rainfall cases over Southwest China in 2012 was determined. The results show that: The forecasted rainfall zone for all valid time is located west and north to the observed one, especially for the medium range forecast. 70% points of the forecast rainfall belt over the rainfall axis lie in two degrees north and three degrees west of observed one. The forecasted rainfall intensity with amount larger than 25 mm/24 h is weaker than the observed. The distribution of forecasted extreme rainfall is almost the same as the observed in 24-48 h. However, with the valid time becoming longer, the extreme forecasted rainfall gets obviously weaker. Area of forecasted light rain is larger than the observed, but the area of rainfall more than 25 mm/24 h is smaller. For Sichuan Basin, the forecasted shear line is situated 0.5-3 degrees west to the analyzed one, and the forecasted low level jet (LLJ) is located 0.5-1.5 degree west. The intensity error of LLJ is different for different seasons.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306002)和中国气象局2013年预报员专项(CMAYBY2013 083)共同资助
引用文本:
符娇兰,宗志平,代刊,张芳华,高栋斌,2014.一种定量降水预报误差检验技术及其应用[J].气象,40(7):796-805.
FU Jiaolan,ZONG Zhiping,DAI Kan,ZHANG Fanghua,GAO Dongbin,2014.Application of a Verification Method on Bias Analysis of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts[J].Meteor Mon,40(7):796-805.