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投稿时间：2014-04-03 修订日期：2014-04-10
投稿时间：2014-04-03 修订日期：2014-04-10
中文摘要: 为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品，对2013年12月至2014年2月T639模式中期预报时效产品进行了天气学检验，并与ECMWF（文中简称EC）和日本模式（文中简称JP）进行了对比分析。结果表明：3个模式均对亚洲中高纬大气环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。对于850 hPa温度场，ECMWF模式的预报误差最小，日本模式次之，T639模式略差；与之前秋季预报结果相比，3个模式对温度场预报能力均有所减弱。对于海平面气压场，ECMWF仍然显示出较好的预报性能。综合看来，ECMWF模式对主要天气系统及气象要素的预报最接近分析场；日本模式和T639模式次之。
中文关键词: T639模式， 中期天气预报， 天气学检验
Abstract:In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasts from December 2013 to February 2014 is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that all the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. For temperatures at 850 hPa, ECMWF’s prediction error is the least among the three models, followed by Japan and T639 models in order. Compared with the temperature prediction for the last autumn, the results from the three models are not so good. For the sea level pressure, ECMWF model still shows the best performance among the models. As a whole, the ECMWF model is much better in forecasting most weather systems and meteorological elements than the T639 and Japan models.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| LIU Yi | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
刘一,2014.2013年12月至2014年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(5):637-641.
LIU Yi,2014.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2013 to February 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(5):637-641.
刘一,2014.2013年12月至2014年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(5):637-641.
LIU Yi,2014.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2013 to February 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(5):637-641.