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气象:2014,40(5):541-548
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2012年7月华北降水异常成因分析
(1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京 210044;2.国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Cause Analysis on the Precipitation Anomalies in North China in July 2012
(1.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;2.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2013-03-14    修订日期:2013-08-11
中文摘要: 2012年7月,我国华北地区降水较常年偏多近45%,期间出现了严重的洪涝灾害。本文利用中国台站降水等资料,对华北降水异常现象及其可能成因进行了分析。结果表明,多因子共同作用可能造成了7月华北降水异常偏多。2012年7月,欧亚中高纬地区维持两脊一槽环流型,贝加尔湖附近低槽活动造成冷空气频繁南下。同时,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)明显偏北带来的充沛水汽与北方冷空气持续交汇于华北地区,共同构成了华北地区降水偏多的大尺度环流形势。分析还发现,西太平洋暖池区海温偏暖,产生的强盛对流活动使西太平洋副高位置偏北。同时,受北太平洋地区海温偏暖影响,东亚东北部 北太平洋地区盛行低层反气旋异常环流,也造成副高位置偏北。
Abstract:Precipitations in North China were 45% more than normal during July 2012, accompanied with serious flood disasters. Utilizing precipitation data in China and other data, the characteristics of the anomalies and the possible causes ware analyzed. The results show that it might be attributed to the influence of multiple factors. On the 500 hPa level, the large scale circulation exhibits “two ridges and one trough” pattern over mid high latitude of Eurasian Continent. The northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high is also detected. Under this circumstance, the cold and the warm air converge strongly over North China, causing the serious precipitation anomalies. Further study shows that the SST of the equatorial western Pacific Warm Pool remains abnormally warmer in July 2012, generating strong convective activities and driving the subtropical high to north. As a result, the subtropical high shifts northward. On the other hand, affected by the positive SSTA in the North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone circulation prevails over the northeast of East Asia and North Pacific region, causing the subtropical high stretching towards north.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2012CB955901和2013CB430203)、中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目——亚洲区域性气候异常诊断关键技术及应用和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306070)共同资助
引用文本:
金炜昕,孙丞虎,李维京,2014.2012年7月华北降水异常成因分析[J].气象,40(5):541-548.
JIN Weixin,SUN Chenghu,LI Weijing,2014.Cause Analysis on the Precipitation Anomalies in North China in July 2012[J].Meteor Mon,40(5):541-548.