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投稿时间：2013-12-20 修订日期：2014-01-09
投稿时间：2013-12-20 修订日期：2014-01-09
中文摘要: 为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品，对2013年9—11月T639模式中期预报时效产品进行了天气学检验，并与ECMWF和日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明：三个模式均对亚洲中高纬大气环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合看来，ECMWF模式对主要天气系统及气象要素的预报最接近实况；日本模式和T639模式次之。另外，选取了2013年9月20—22日的台风天兔天气过程进行检验，发现ECMWF模式对于此次台风（强台风级）的路径及登陆点的中期预报指示意义最好。
中文关键词: T639模式， 中期天气预报， 天气学检验
Abstract:In order to improve the ability of using the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasting prodcuts in autumn 2013 is made, and then compared with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that all the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole, the ECMWF model is much better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Taking the strong tropical storm No.1319 (Usagi) process during the period of September 20-22, 2013 as a case, it is found that the ECMWF model is more effective than the other two models in medium range forecasting of the turning track of USAGI and its landing point.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| LIU Yi | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
刘一,2014.2013年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(2):247-252.
LIU Yi,2014.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasting by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2013[J].Meteor Mon,40(2):247-252.
刘一,2014.2013年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(2):247-252.
LIU Yi,2014.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasting by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2013[J].Meteor Mon,40(2):247-252.