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投稿时间：2012-07-04 修订日期：2013-01-23
投稿时间：2012-07-04 修订日期：2013-01-23
中文摘要: 本文对2002年建立的山东夏季降水量场预测模型进行了多方面的改进。预测因子的选取在原来以常规100、500hPa或海温状态场的关键区域平均值基础上,增加了能表征天气系统月际演变趋势及区域环流总体特征的遥相关型环流指数，建模资料的选取结合了环流突变的气候背景，以1977—2008年资料进行建模，建模方案在原来纯数学分析的基础上，增加了着重考虑因子物理意义的建模方案，用2009—2011年实况资料对两种建模方案及2002年建模方案的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明，改进后预测模型较旧预测模型的预测效果有较大提高，而物理统计预测模型对降水的空间分布也具有较好的预测效果。
中文关键词: 夏季降水，场预测模型，改进
Abstract:In this paper, a predictive model constructed in 2002 to forecast summer rain field in Shandong Province is significantly improved. On the basis of the original prediction factors of 100 hPa and 500 hPa geopotential heights and sea surface temperature of the key zone, teleconnection circulation indices characterizing monthly development and regional circulation of weather system are taken into account. Climate background of the atmospheric circulation abrupt change is considered when selecting data of 1977-2008 period to construct the model. And besides of mathematical analysis, schemes considering physical implications of the predictors are included in the new model. The new model, the original model and the 2002 predictive model are comparatively evaluated by using the 2009-2011 observation data. Results show that performance of the improved model is much better than the original one. The new model has also good performance of predictions in forecasting spatial distributions of precipitation.
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基金项目:山东省气象局项目（2009sdqxz09)资助
引用文本：
胡桂芳,孟祥新,汤子东,2013.山东夏季降水量场预测模型的改进及预测效果检验[J].气象,39(9):1210-1216.
HU Guifang,MENG Xiangxin,TANG Zidong,2013.Improvement of a Summer Rain Field Predictive Model in Shandong Province and Its Verification[J].Meteor Mon,39(9):1210-1216.
胡桂芳,孟祥新,汤子东,2013.山东夏季降水量场预测模型的改进及预测效果检验[J].气象,39(9):1210-1216.
HU Guifang,MENG Xiangxin,TANG Zidong,2013.Improvement of a Summer Rain Field Predictive Model in Shandong Province and Its Verification[J].Meteor Mon,39(9):1210-1216.