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气象:2013,39(9):1133-1138
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Nino3区海温的变化对黄河流域夏季降水的影响
(1.中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州 450003,河南省气候中心,郑州 450003;2.国家气候中心,北京 100081;3.南京信息工程大学,南京 210044)
Impact of Variation of Sea Surface Temperature in Nino3 District on Summer Precipitation over Yellow River Basin
(1.Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique, CMA, Zhengzhou 450003,Henan Climate Centre, Zhengzhou 450003;2.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;3.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2012-06-19    修订日期:2013-01-24
中文摘要: 利用1961—2011年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和黄河流域45站降水资料,定义了4月和上年10月的Nino3区海温差(ΔISST3)指数,分析ΔISST3指数与夏季海温的关系以及大气环流和夏季黄河流域降水与ΔISST3指数的相关情况,得到如下结果:(1)ΔISST3升高(降低)时,夏季赤道中东太平洋海温易偏暖(冷),而我国南海到菲律宾半岛海区易偏冷(暖)。(2)500 hPa高度场上,ΔISST3与100°E~80°W范围的热带和副热带地区高度呈显著的负相关关系;ΔISST3正负异常差值场显示,ΔISST3升高(降低)时,夏季热带和太平洋副热带地区的500 hPa高度偏低(高),赤道北侧850 hPa西风(东风)距平异常,西太平洋副热带高压明显偏弱(强),我国东部沿海大陆盛行偏北(南)气流,暖湿气流不活跃(活跃),季风偏弱(强),而中高纬度上,蒙古北部气旋(反气旋)发展,致使河套地区处在反气旋性(气旋性)环流中。(3)ΔISST3指数与黄河流域夏季降水呈显著的负相关关系,相关系数为-0.51,当ΔISST3正异常时,黄河流域夏季降水易偏少;ΔISST3负异常时,黄河流域夏季降水易偏多,且负异常对黄河流域夏季降水的影响更显著。
Abstract:With the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961-2011 and the precipitation data from 45 stations in the Yellow River Basin, Nino3 SST difference index (ΔI SST3) from the previous October to current April is defined and the relationship between ΔI SST3 and summer sea surface temperature, and the correlations of atmospheric circulation and summer precipitation in Yellow River Basin with the Δ I SST3 index are analyzed. The results show that: (1) When ΔI SST3 increases (decreases), the following summer’s sea surface temperature of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific tends to be warm (cool) while that of the area from South China Sea to Philippines Peninsula sea region tends to be cool (warm). (2) The Δ I SST3 also shows a significant negative correlation with the subtropical area within 100°E-80°W at the 500 hPa height field. The positive and negative abnormal difference field of Δ I SST3 shows that when the Δ I SST3 increases (decreases), the height at 500 hPa over the tropical and subtropical Pacific regions in summer is lower (higher); the 850 hPa westerly (easterly) to the north of the equator appears to be abnormal; the Western Pacific subtropical high is significantly weak (strong); northerly (southerly) airflow prevails in coastal areas of eastern China; warm and humid airflow is inactive (active); the monsoon is weaker (stronger). However, the Mongolia cyclone (anticyclone) in the middle and high latitudes is further developing. As a result, the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation covers the Hetao Region.(3) The ΔI SST3 and the summer precipitation over the Yellow River Basin share a significant negative correlation with a coefficient of -0.51. When the Δ I SST3 is positively abnormal,the summer precipitation in the Yellow River Basin is likely to decline; When the Δ I SST3 presents negative anomaly,precipitation of the Yellow River basin in summer tends to exceed the normal, and the negative anomaly has more significant influence on the summer precipitation of the Yellow River Basin.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428401)和短期气候预测创新团队共同资助
引用文本:
常军,王永光,赵宇,2013.Nino3区海温的变化对黄河流域夏季降水的影响[J].气象,39(9):1133-1138.
CHANG Jun,WANG Yongguang,ZHAO Yu,2013.Impact of Variation of Sea Surface Temperature in Nino3 District on Summer Precipitation over Yellow River Basin[J].Meteor Mon,39(9):1133-1138.