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气象:2013,39(7):930-937
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2012/2013年东亚冬季风活动特征及其可能成因分析
(1.国家气候中心,北京 100081;2.中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
Features and Possible Causes for East Asian Winter Monsoon in 2012/2013
(1.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;2.Laboratory for Climate Studies, CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2013-04-17    修订日期:2013-05-10
中文摘要: 东亚冬季风目前处于年代际偏强的气候背景下,2012/2013年东亚冬季风强度指数(EAWM)为0.83,连续第六年强度偏强。2012/2013年冬季,北极涛动(AO)指数维持负位相,导致全国平均气温较常年同期略偏低。季内,西伯利亚高压强度变化显著,与之相对应,我国气温季内阶段性变化大,前冬冷、后冬暖。进一步研究表明,前秋北极海冰的大幅偏少是造成东亚冬季风偏强的重要原因,前期海冰范围的减少有利于冬季欧亚大陆北部的海平面气压出现正异常,致使西伯利亚高压的偏强,有利于冷空气南下我国。而西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风季内变化主要是受平流层环流异常信号影响,1月中旬前后,北半球高纬地区平流层位势高度出现明显正异常并迅速下传影响对流层中低层,造成西伯利亚高压和冬季风季内阶段性偏弱。
Abstract:The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) was in the phase stronger than normal in the inter decadal variation, and the EAWM index was 0.83 in winter 2012/2013, which was the 6th consecutive year with strong intensity. During the winter from December 2012 to February 2013, the daily Arctic Oscillation index was negative, leading to a colder than normal situation over China. While the Siberian High (SH) exhibited strong intra seasonal variations, the temperature over China had two stage variations last winter, warmer in the early winter and colder in the late winter. Further research indicated that the reduced Arctic sea ice extent in the last autumn was responsible for the positive sea level pressure (SLP) in the Northern Eurasia in winter, resulting in the strengthening of Siberian High which was favorable for cold front to move southward into China. The intra seasonal variation of the SH and EAWM was mainly affected by the downward propagation of positive geopotential height anomalies in stratosphere.The positive stratospheric anomalies over the high latitude areas in Northern Hemisphere in mid January had an evident influence on the mid and low levels of troposphere, causing the periodical weakening of SH and EAWM.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41205042)、国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955901)、中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013Z08)和中国气象局气候研究开放实验室2012/2013年度开放青年基金资助项目共同资助
引用文本:
王东阡,周兵,孙丞虎,袁媛,柳艳菊,王朋岭,2013.2012/2013年东亚冬季风活动特征及其可能成因分析[J].气象,39(7):930-937.
WANG Dongqian,ZHOU Bing,SUN Chenghu,YUAN Yuan,LIU Yanju,WANG Pengling,2013.Features and Possible Causes for East Asian Winter Monsoon in 2012/2013[J].Meteor Mon,39(7):930-937.