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投稿时间：2011-02-20 修订日期：2011-12-28
投稿时间：2011-02-20 修订日期：2011-12-28
中文摘要: 选取陕西苹果30个生产基地县中果业发展水平具有代表性的12个台站，近50年(1961—2009年)9月中旬至10月上旬苹果成熟期连续3天及以上降水日数和无降水日数资料，设计并计算其连阴雨指数。将连阴雨指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱5个等级，并用典型K阶自回归AR(K)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明连阴雨指数能够较客观地反映基地县的连阴雨强度，且典型K阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在83%左右，预报效果尚好，具有实用价值。
中文关键词: 苹果成熟期, 连阴雨指数, 自回归模式, 预测
Abstract:Using the data of 3 consecutive rainfall days and no rain days during mid September to early October in near 50 years (1961-2009) from 12 representative stations in major apple cultivating counties of Shaanxi, the index of continuous rainfall days (ICRD) has been designed and calculated, and is divided into the strongest, stronger, medium, weak and weaker five levels, on the basis of which, conducting the independent sample trial by using typical K order autoregressive AR (K) forecasting model. The basic result of this research is that the ICRD could objectively reflect the intensity of continuous rainfall days in apple maturity period. In addition, the typical K order autoregressive forecasting model has about 83% forecasts being accurate or basically accurate, indicating that the effect of this forecasting model is still good and of practical value.
keywords: apple maturity period, index of continuous rainfall days (ICRD), autoregressive model, forecast
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基金项目:2010年陕西省气象局科技创新基金项目“陕西省苹果果区连阴雨指数预报方法研究”（2010M 42）资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 刘璐 | 陕西省经济作物气象服务台, 西安 710015 |
| 马杰 | 甘肃省天水市气象局， 天水 741000 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| LIU Lu | Shaanxi Meteorological Serving Office of Economical Crop, Xi’an 710015 |
| MA Jie | Tianshui Meteorological Office of Gansu, Tianshui 741000 |
引用文本：
刘璐,马杰,2012.陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究[J].气象,38(8):1012-1016.
LIU Lu,MA Jie,2012.Research on Index of Continuous Rainfall Days and Forecasting Method in Shaanxi Apple Maturity Period[J].Meteor Mon,38(8):1012-1016.
刘璐,马杰,2012.陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究[J].气象,38(8):1012-1016.
LIU Lu,MA Jie,2012.Research on Index of Continuous Rainfall Days and Forecasting Method in Shaanxi Apple Maturity Period[J].Meteor Mon,38(8):1012-1016.