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气象:2012,38(7):834-840
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热带气旋莫兰蒂(1010)强度的观测研究和增强条件的诊断分析
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
An Observational and Diagnostic Analysis on the Intensity and Intensity Changes of Typhoon Meranti (1010)
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2011-12-08    修订日期:2012-03-01
中文摘要: 热带气旋莫兰蒂(1010)进入台湾海峡后显著加强。本文普查了历史上在台湾海峡与“莫兰蒂”有相似路径的热带气旋,其中几乎没有增强的热带气旋个例;总结了“莫兰蒂”在台湾海峡活动时的强度变化,指出在实时业务中国内外台风预报中心对于“莫兰蒂”强度的判定存在明显偏弱的现象。运用天气学和动力诊断方法,分析了“莫兰蒂”在台湾海峡活动时热带气旋发展的基本条件,结果发现:台湾海峡区域有较高的海表温度、丰富的中低层水汽净流入、强烈的低层辐合和高层辐散、低层涡度净流入,为“莫兰蒂”的发展提供了有利的动力和热力条件,弱的环境风垂直切变又使其强度增长没有受到大的抑制作用。研究结果可为热带气旋强度或强度变化预报提供有意义的参考。
Abstract:Typhoon Meranti intensified significantly after moving into the Taiwan Straits. This paper performed a survey on the intensity change of tropical cyclones with a similar track to Meranti in history and found that almost no TCs intensified. The process of the intensity change of Meranti in the Taiwan Straits is analyzed. We find that the intensity estimates provided by many typhoon forecast centers in operation are weaker than observations greatly. By using synoptic and dynamic diagnosis, we analyze the basic environment conditions of the tropical cyclone’s development when Meranti moves into the Taiwan Straits and find that the high SST in the Taiwan Straits, the abundant water vapor transport in lower and middle levels, the strong low level convergence and upper level divergence, and the intense low level positive vorticity transport provides the favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for the intensification of Meranti, and the weak vertical environmental wind shear cannot inhibit the development of Meranti. These results may turn out to be meaningful references for operational TC intensity forecast.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(40905028和40975035)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006008)和中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2011 058)共同资助
引用文本:
高拴柱,吕心艳,王海平,许映龙,2012.热带气旋莫兰蒂(1010)强度的观测研究和增强条件的诊断分析[J].气象,38(7):834-840.
GAO Shuanzhu,LV Xinyan,WANG Haiping,XU Yinglong,2012.An Observational and Diagnostic Analysis on the Intensity and Intensity Changes of Typhoon Meranti (1010)[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):834-840.