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投稿时间：2011-07-27 修订日期：2012-01-10
投稿时间：2011-07-27 修订日期：2012-01-10
中文摘要: 利用吉林省白山市中心医院病例资料及气象资料，分析了感冒疾病与气象条件的关系。感冒发病率与前期天气变化密切相关。一次明显的天气变化过程对应的不是一个高发病日，而是一个持续的高发病阶段；气象环境对不同人群感冒发病率有不同影响，成人在秋冬之交和夏秋之交发病较高，婴幼儿对季节和气候变化适应差，受寒冷、炎热天气影响显著，盛夏和寒冬季节感冒发病高，儿童感冒特征春夏季与婴幼儿相同，秋冬季与成人接近；分析了不同人群感冒住院人数与气象要素的相关关系，并在此基础上，建立了感冒指数预报的判别方程，预报结果检验证明有较好的预报水平。
中文关键词: 气象条件， 感冒， 分析， 预报
Abstract:By using clinical data from Central Hospital of Baishan City, Jilin Province and meteorological data， the relationship between colds and weather conditions is analyzed. It indicates that the incidence of colds is closely related with the previous weather changes. A significant weather change process does not correspond with a single high incidence day, but a sustained high incidence stage. The impacts of meteorological environment on the incidence of colds in different population are different. For adults, higher incidence happens when autumn turns into winter and summer turns into autumn; for infants, it happens in midsummer and midwinter due to their poor adaptability to seasonal and weather change and apparent response to cold and hot weather; for children, the feature of incidence is the same as infants in spring and summer, and close to adults in autumn and winter. A discriminant equation to forecast the colds index is established on the basis of correlation analysis between the numbers of colds inpatients among different people and meteorological elements, and proved to have a good prediction level by prediction test.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106034)
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 张书余 | 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，兰州 730020 |
| 张夏琨 | 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院，南京 210044 |
| 谢静芳 | 吉林省专业气象台，长春 130056 |
| 王宝鉴 | 兰州中心气象台，兰州 730020 |
引用文本：
张书余,张夏琨,谢静芳,王宝鉴,2012.白山市感冒与气象条件的关系分析和预报[J].气象,38(6):740-744.
ZHANG Shuyu,ZHANG Xiakun,XIE Jingfang,WANG Baojian,2012.Analysis of Relationship Between Colds and Weather Conditions and the Establishment of Medical Forecast in Baishan City[J].Meteor Mon,38(6):740-744.
张书余,张夏琨,谢静芳,王宝鉴,2012.白山市感冒与气象条件的关系分析和预报[J].气象,38(6):740-744.
ZHANG Shuyu,ZHANG Xiakun,XIE Jingfang,WANG Baojian,2012.Analysis of Relationship Between Colds and Weather Conditions and the Establishment of Medical Forecast in Baishan City[J].Meteor Mon,38(6):740-744.