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气象:2012,38(6):646-656
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ERA40再分析资料揭示的北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率变化
(1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京 210044;2.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;3.国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Cyclogenesis Frequency Changes of Extratropical Cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and East Asia Revealed by ERA40 Reanalysis Data
(1.College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;3.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2011-11-08    修订日期:2012-03-19
中文摘要: 本文利用欧洲中心再分析数据ERA40的6小时间隔海平面气压场和一种改进的客观判定和追踪方法研究1958—2001年北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率的气候态、年代际变化及可能原因。结果表明:(1)北半球温带气旋的源地主要位于北美东部(落基山下游地区)、西北大西洋地区、格陵兰至欧洲北部地区、蒙古地区和日本至西北太平洋地区。大洋的西岸和陡峭地形的背风坡有利于大气斜压性的增强和正涡度的发展,从而有利于地面气旋的形成。(2)年、冬季和春季30°~60°N 气旋生成数目呈现减少的变化趋势,60°~90°N地区的气旋生成数呈增加的变化趋势。这在一定程度上支持了北半球风暴路径北移的观点。60°N以南和以北的温带气旋数目同北极涛动指数(AO)分别呈现负相关和正相关,这种相关性在年、春季和秋季最为显著。(3)1958—2001年东亚地区的年气旋数目呈现明显的年代际变化。20世纪60年代至80年代中期40°~60°N、80°~140°E地区气旋数目呈增加趋势,而80年代中期之后温带气旋数目则锐减,主要原因是80年代以后该地区大气斜压性减弱,更高纬度地区的大气斜压性增强,从而导致了气旋源地的北移。在较低纬带的20°~40°N、110°~160°E地区气旋数目线性增加,这主要是由于位于40°~55°N的北太平洋风暴轴有向低纬度偏移的变化趋势造成的。
Abstract:A climatology of cyclogenesis frequency of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and East Asia for the years of 1958 to 2001, and the interdecadal variation and possible causes, were analyzed by applying an improved objective detecting and tracking algorithm to the six hourly sea level pressure fields in the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data ERA40. The result shows that: (1) major source regions of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere are eastern North America (downstream areas of Rocky Mountains), Northwest Atlantic, Greenland Northern Europe, Mongolia and Japan Northwest Pacific. Atmospheric baroclinicity and positive vorticity are apt to intensify and develop in ocean west bank and leeward slope of steep orography, which makes for the formation of ground cyclones. (2) The cyclogenesis number of annual, spring and winter indicated a decrease trend in the region of 30°-60°N and an increase trend in the region of 60°-90°N, which supports the viewpoint of the northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. The cyclone number also had a negative and positive correlation with Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in the south and north of 60°N respectively, especially for annual, spring and autumn. (3) The annual cyclone number in East Asia from 1958 to 2001 indicated obvious interdecadal variations. The cyclone number increased from 1960s to mid 1980s but reduced after mid 1980s in the region of 40°-60°N, 80°-140°E. This is because atmospheric baroclinicity weakened in this region, while strengthened in the higher latitude region, resulting in the northward shift of cyclone source region. There is a linear increased trend of cyclone numbers in the lower latitude region of 20°-40°N, 110°-160°E, mainly because the North Pacific storm track, located in 40°-55°N, had a shift trend to lower latitudes.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究计划(973)课题(2010CB428606和2010CB950404)及国家科技支撑计划课题(2009BAC51B01)共同资助
引用文本:
张颖娴,丁一汇,李巧萍,2012.ERA40再分析资料揭示的北半球和东亚地区温带气旋生成频率变化[J].气象,38(6):646-656.
ZHANG Yingxian,DING Yihui,LI Qiaoping,2012.Cyclogenesis Frequency Changes of Extratropical Cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and East Asia Revealed by ERA40 Reanalysis Data[J].Meteor Mon,38(6):646-656.