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气象:2012,38(5):569-576
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北京市强降雨分区及重现期研究
(北京市气候中心,北京 100089)
The Study of Beijing’s Rainstorm Division and Its Return Periods
(Beijing Regional Climate Centre, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2011-01-25    修订日期:2011-10-09
中文摘要: 利用北京观象台1841—2008年年降水量资料及近50年北京市20个气象站和82个雨量站资料分析了北京地区降水量的时间和空间变化规律,对北京地区的降雨进行分区研究,并结合观象台站逐分钟降雨资料应用广义偏态分布(GPD)方法分析了北京地区不同历时降雨量重现期。结果表明:近168年来,北京地区有两个多雨时段和两个少雨时段,目前北京处于20世纪90年代至今的少雨时段内。70至80年代,北京地区强降雨主要为全市区域性降雨,90年代之后北京的短历时强降雨呈现出局地性的特征,降水分布不均,强降水中心大致成东北—西南向带状分布。根据北京市降雨EOF分析,将北京市划分为4个降雨分区,分别是山后区、城市中心区、东北部山区和东南部平原区。其中城区代表站观象台站多个历时不同重现期降雨量分析结果经过与现行排水规范对比表明,重现期模拟结果可靠。
Abstract:In this paper, the precipitation data at Beijing Observatory from 1841 to 2008, and the rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations and 82 rainfall stations for nearly five decades, are used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the precipitation in Beijing at different subregions, and the rainfall data by minute are used by the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) method to analyze the short duration rainfall in Beijing at different return periods. The results have shown that: Beijing has two rainy periods of 1871-1894 and 1947-1960 and two dry periods of 1853-1870 and 1992-present. From the 1970s to 1980s, the heavy rainfall in Beijing mainly occurred in urban area. After the 1990s, the short duration of heavy rainfall displayed the local characteristics of the uneven distribution, and heavy precipitation centers roughly changed to a southwest northeast banded distribution. According to the rainfall spatial distribution and EOF analysis, the rainfall region can be divided into four subregions, i.e. mountain areas, urban centers, northeast mountains and southeast plains. The result of rainfall in different return periods is close to the existing drainage specifications, which means that the simulation results of return period are reliable.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428506),中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201204),北京市科委“极端天气事件对城市安全运行的影响评估系统研究”共同资助
引用文本:
马京津,李书严,王冀,2012.北京市强降雨分区及重现期研究[J].气象,38(5):569-576.
MA Jingjin,LI Shuyan,WANG Ji,2012.The Study of Beijing’s Rainstorm Division and Its Return Periods[J].Meteor Mon,38(5):569-576.