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气象:2012,38(4):438-447
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2009年7月2—4日广西暴雨过程的中尺度特征
(1.广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁 530022;2.广西壮族自治区人工影响天气办公室,南宁 530022)
Mesoscale Analysis of the 2-4 July 2009 Heavy Rainfall in Guangxi
(1.Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022;2.Guangxi Weather Modification Office, Nanning 530022)
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投稿时间:2011-05-19    修订日期:2012-02-03
中文摘要: 本文运用NCEP 1°×1°格点资料和多普勒雷达、自动站以及SWAN系统等资料,用综合诊断分析方法对2009年7月2—4日广西大范围强降水过程进行成因分析。结果表明:由于冷空气很弱,以渗透的方式影响广西,使地面西南暖低压得以长时间维持,是这次过程持续时间长的主要原因之一;地面辐合线稳定少动,是桂北强对流发展的触发机制,也是产生“列车效应”的主要因子;柳州多普勒雷达基本反射率显示在7月2日20时到3日08时的“列车效应”使得河池东部和柳州北部出现了特大暴雨,暴雨中心在径向速度上反映为强烈的辐合。此外对SWAN产品进行检验和分析,Cotrec风场对回波的移动有较好的指示作用;TITAN在预报强回波的移动和强度上有着一定的预报能力;1小时雨量预报与实况雨量大致相近。
Abstract:Using the NCEP 1°×1° grid data, Doppler radar data, and products from the SWAN system, this paper analyzes the large scale heavy precipitation process in Guangxi at 20:00 BT 2 to 20:00 BT 4 July 2009 with a comprehensive diagnostic method. The results show that: The cold air is very weak so as to penetrate into Guangxi, then the southwestern warm low can maintain for a long time, this is one of the main causes for the precipitation lasting for long time. Meanwhile, the surface convergence line is stable, which is the trigger mechanism of strong convection development in northern Guangxi, and is also the main factor for the generation of ‘train effect’. Base reflectivity of Liuzhou Doppler radar showed that the “train effect” made heavy rainfalls occurring in areas east of Hechi and north of Liuzhou during 20:00 BT 2 July to 08:00 BT 3 July 2009, and storm center is reflected as strong convergence in the radial velocity. Besides, the SWAN products were tested and analyzed, the Cotrec winds have a good indication to the echo moving; TITAN techniques have some forecasting capability to the movement and intensity of strong echo; and the one hour rainfall forecast is generally similar to the live rainfall.
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基金项目:中国气象局新技术推广项目预报员专项(CMATG2008Y07)、广西科技厅 (桂科攻0993002 1和桂科攻0816006 9)和广西青年基金(0991061)共同资助
引用文本:
祁丽燕,农孟松,王冀,2012.2009年7月2—4日广西暴雨过程的中尺度特征[J].气象,38(4):438-447.
QI Liyan,NONG Mengsong,WANG Ji,2012.Mesoscale Analysis of the 2-4 July 2009 Heavy Rainfall in Guangxi[J].Meteor Mon,38(4):438-447.