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气象:2012,38(3):257-265
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古气候的启示
(1.北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,气候与海气实验室,北京 100871;2.清华大学地球系统科学研究中心,北京 100084)
Implications of Paleoclimate
(1.Laboratory for Climate and OceanAtmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871;2.The Center for Earth System Science and the Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084)
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投稿时间:2012-01-29    修订日期:2012-02-17
中文摘要: 回顾了近20~30年古气候的研究进展,包括下列问题:雪球和热力极大期、冰期 间冰期旋回、古季风、D/O循环和H事件、全新世季风、全新世气候突变、气候变化与古文明、近2000年的气候。研究表明,第四纪前的气候变化中CO2起着重要的作用,但是在冰期 间冰期旋回中CO2变化落后于温度变化。这说明虽然影响机制不同,但是温室气体和气候间有着密切的相互作用这一点则是可以肯定的。地球目前处于间冰期,面临着冰期来临的威胁。人类活动造成的气候变暖有可能推迟下一次冰期的到来。21世纪全球变暖仍将继续,人们可能做的、也是必须要做的,是尽可能地降低变暖的速率,以及可能达到的变暖峰值。
Abstract:Studies on the paleoclimate during the last 20-30 years are reviewed. The following hot topics are discussed: snowball Earth and Paleocene Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), glacial interglacial cycles, paleo monsoon, D/O cycles and H events, Holocene monsoon, abrupt climate change in the Holocene, climate change and associated ancient civilization, and the last 2 ka climate. It is indicated that, the snowball Earth and PETM were caused by the depletion and explosive increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere respectively. However, the change of temperature was preceding that of greenhouse gases in glacial interglacial cycle, as found in the ice cores in the Antarctica. It is also shown that the changes of temperatures and greenhouse gases were highly correlated before the Quaternary, but changed after that, which might be linked to a differed mechanism. Enhancement of greenhouse effect in the present will, probably to some extent, delay the onset of the next glacial period. In any case, anthropogenic effect on the climate will definitely continue in the 21st century even we turn to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in some ways. The global warming will remain as a critical issue, which we have to face in near future.
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基金项目:973计划(2010CB950104)和中国科学院战略先导项目(9 XDA05090104)共同资助
引用文本:
王绍武,黄建斌,闻新宇,2012.古气候的启示[J].气象,38(3):257-265.
Wang Shaowu,Huang Jianbin,Wen Xinyu,2012.Implications of Paleoclimate[J].Meteor Mon,38(3):257-265.