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气象:2012,38(1):109-117
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基于条件价值法的气象服务效益评估研究
(1.南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院,南京 210044;2.南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,南京 210044;3.中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081;4.气象出版社,北京 100081)
The Value Estimation of Meteorological Service in China Based on Contingent Valuation
(1.Institute of Manufacturing Development of China, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;2.School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;3.CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081;4.China Meteorological Press, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2011-02-02    修订日期:2011-08-12
中文摘要: 近年来极端灾害性天气频发,日益引起人们对气象服务的重视,而如何评估气象服务效益的价值一直是个难题。“气象服务效益评估的技术与方法研究”课题组以条件价值法为基础,设计了问卷,针对“中国天气网”的网民、南京信息工程大学的教师和学生共获取了近5万个数据。首先对数据进行了描述性统计,得到了一系列富有启示意义的结论;采用条件价值法计算得知,我国网络民众每年的支付意愿值为73.6亿元到205.8亿元之间。多元回归分析还显示,与支付意愿直接正相关的因素包括受访者的受教育年限、户外工作时间、月收入、年龄和居住地等;如果受访者本人或其家属在气象部门工作时,对气象服务的支付意愿也呈现增加的趋势。而性别、本地居住时间等变量并不显著。最后还提出了几点建议。
Abstract:Frequent severe weather conditions and subsequent huge damages have risen many concerns in the meteorological services including a necessary evaluation of the current quality and level of services and the demands of customers. To develop quality improvement strategies and explore the market capacity for the meteorological services, this paper analyzed the survey data collected through the project “Research of Meteorological Service Performance Evaluation Methods and Technologies (MSPE)”, jointly funded by Ministry of Finance of People’s Republic of China and China Meteorological Administration. The project contained nearly 50000 records obtained from an internet survey and on site questionnaire. First, some descriptive statistical methods are applied to the data to achieve enlightenment results. Then based on the contingent valuation method (CVM), the willingness to pay for the meteorological services is estimated, ranging from 7.36 to 20.58 billion Yuan per year. Further, regression analysis shows that variables including weather staff or not, education background, outdoor work time, monthly income, age and place of parental residence, are significant influential factors for the willingness to pay. However, gender and time span of residence are not significant variables.
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基金项目:国家社科基金项目(11CGL100)、气象行业科研专项课题(GYHY200806017)、教育部人文社科项目青年基金项目(09YJC630128)及中国博士后基金项目(20090461132)共同资助
引用文本:
吴先华,孙健,陈云峰,2012.基于条件价值法的气象服务效益评估研究[J].气象,38(1):109-117.
Wu Xianhua,Sun Jian,Chen Yunfeng,2012.The Value Estimation of Meteorological Service in China Based on Contingent Valuation[J].Meteor Mon,38(1):109-117.