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投稿时间：2011-09-27 修订日期：2011-10-13
投稿时间：2011-09-27 修订日期：2011-10-13
中文摘要: 为更好地应用数值模式中期预报产品，对2011年6—8月T639 模式进行天气学检验，并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明：三家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看，ECMWF模式对大尺度环流形势、影响天气系统及要素的预报最接近实况；日本模式和T639模式稍差，稳定性也不如ECMWF模式。对1109号台风梅花（MUIFA）的路径及强度预报，三家模式的预报效果均不理想，T639模式对“梅花”登陆后的预报与零场较接近，而ECMWF模式及日本模式预报相对较差。
Abstract:In order to improve the application ability to T639 model, a synoptic verification about its medium range forecasting （120 h leading time） during the summer of 2011 is made in comparison with the counterparts of the models of ECMWF and Japan. The results show that the three models all have good performance on predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment over Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole, ECMWF is the best at forecasting synoptic systems and elements among all models. However, the three models have bigger errors on prediction of the track and intensity of typhoon MUIFA except that T639 model performs well after typhoon landing.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Jiang Xing | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
| Cai Xiangning | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
蒋 星,蔡芗宁,2011.2011年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,37(11):1448-1452.
Jiang Xing,Cai Xiangning,2011.The Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from June to August 2011[J].Meteor Mon,37(11):1448-1452.
蒋 星,蔡芗宁,2011.2011年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,37(11):1448-1452.
Jiang Xing,Cai Xiangning,2011.The Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from June to August 2011[J].Meteor Mon,37(11):1448-1452.