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气象:2011,37(7):795-801
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不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究
(安徽省气象台,合肥 230031)
The Short Time Forecasting and Early Warning Reasearch on Severe Convective Weather Under Different Types of Large Scale Circulation Background
(Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031)
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投稿时间:2010-12-30    修订日期:2011-04-12
中文摘要: 利用常规气象资料、自动站资料、卫星资料、NCEP再分析资料,对2001—2010年安徽省强对流天气过程的物理机制、中尺度特征进行分析。结果表明:强对流天气其发生发展和一定的大尺度环流背景场有关,强对流发生的天气学条件即:丰富水汽、不稳定层结、抬升触发机制或强上升运动,强烈发展的强风暴常有逆温层、强的风垂直切变、中层干冷空气等有利条件。然而,这些条件在不同的大尺度环流背景下各要素的重要性不尽相同,产生的强对流天气类型也不相同。冷涡槽后类对流不稳定表现在中低层温度直减率大;风垂直切变强,风随高度强烈顺转,400~500 hPa有西风急流存在,且与强对流天气的发生区域紧密相关;存在明显的中尺度低压和辐合线、干线;主要造成雷雨大风和冰雹天气。槽前类通常对流不稳定能量较大,中低层有急流存在,风速水平切变和垂直切变大;快速东移的短波槽是触发强对流天气的主要机制;低层水汽条件较好;主要导致雷雨大风、短时强降水和龙卷天气。通过对不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气各天气要素和物理量统计,提取环境场消空指标,明显提高了基于多普勒雷达反射率因子和平均径向速度的龙卷识别和预警水平。对比分析了2010年7月19—20日发生在副高边缘槽前类和在东北冷涡形势下的2009年6月3日、5日、14日在黄淮和江淮地区分别产生飑线并造成大范围雷雨大风、冰雹等强对流天气产生的物理机制、中尺度特征差异,提高对不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时、临近预报水平。
Abstract:Based on conventional observation data, satellite data, automatic weather station data and NCEP(1°×1°) reanalysis data, the physical mechanisms and mesoscale features of severe convective weather processes in Anhui Province in recent ten years (2001-2010) are analyzed. The results show that: The development of severe convective weather is related to the large scale circulation background, which needs abundant water vapor, unstable stratification, the trigger mechanism or strong lifting, and the strong development of strong storms often have inversion layer, strong vertical wind shear, mid level dry air and other favorable conditions. However, the importance of these conditions in different large scale circulation backgrounds is not the same, and these conditions also produce different types of severe convective weather. The convective instability of cold vortex pattern and behind trough shows that: the lapse rate of temperature in low levels is large; vertical wind shear is strong; the wind strongly clockwise with height increasing; westerly jet exists in 400-500 hPa, which is closely related with the severe weather area; and there exist obvious mesoscale low pressure, convergence line, and dry line. This pattern mainly causes thunderstorm, strong wind and hail. The CAPE is usually large in ahead of trough pattern, low level jet exists, the horizontal and vertical shears of wind are large; the short wave trough moving to east rapidly is the main trigger mechanism of strong convective weather; and the low level moisture condition is good. This pattern mainly causes thunderstorm, strong wind, flood and tornado. Through statistics of the various weather elements and physical parameters of severe convective weather under different types of large scale circulation background, and extraction of eliminating empty forecast indicators using environment field, we will significantly improve the tornado identification ability and early warning level based on the reflectivity factor and the average radial velocity of Doppler radar. This paper compares the physical mechanism and mesoscale characteristic differences between two severe convective weather processes which caused squall line, vast thunderstorm wind and hail on Huang Huai and Jiang Huai Regions one of which occurred in the situation of subtropical high edge and ahead of trough during 19-20 July 2010, the other occurred in the situation of Northeast cold vortex on 3, 5, and 14 June 2009. This work may improve short time forecasting ability of severe convective weather under different types of large scale circulation background.
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基金项目:2009年公益性(气象)行业科研专项 “中尺度对流性天气诊断分析方法研究” (GYHY200906003)、2010年公益性(气象)行业科研专项“强对流天气短时临近预报非常规检验新技术研发”(GYHY201006002)和全国强对流预报专家团队共同资助
引用文本:
郑媛媛,姚晨,郝莹,张雪晨,2011.不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究[J].气象,37(7):795-801.
ZHENG Yuanyuan,YAO Chen,HAO Ying,ZHANG Xuechen,2011.The Short Time Forecasting and Early Warning Reasearch on Severe Convective Weather Under Different Types of Large Scale Circulation Background[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):795-801.