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气象:2011,37(5):590-598
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2009年3月中旬新疆融雪型洪水气象成因分析
(1.中国气象局公共气象服务中心, 北京 100081;2. 国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
The Possible Weather Causes for Snowmelt Flooding in Xinjiang in Mid March 2009
(1.CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081;2. National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2010-05-25    修订日期:2011-02-16
中文摘要: 利用1950—2006年的新疆融雪型洪水灾情资料对新疆地区融雪型洪水发生特点进行了分析。结果表明:新疆地区融雪型洪水多发生在天山北坡,特别是伊犁河谷和塔城地区是融雪型洪水的多发区域。3月中旬到4月上旬为融雪型洪水的多发时期。在此基础上,从气候背景、天气诊断分析等方面对2009年3月中旬融雪型洪水的气象成因进行了分析和研究,得出:2009年2月降水明显偏多为3月中旬融雪洪水的发生提供了基础条件,而3月中旬冷空气过后气温持续迅速回升是此次融雪洪水发生的主要气象因素。持续迅速升温过程中,平均气温由负转正、最高气温高于5 ℃以及暖平流中心出现时间对融雪型洪水预报具有指示意义。
Abstract:Using the snowmelt flooding disaster data from 1950 to 2006, snowmelt flooding characteristics of the Xinjiang region were analyzed. The results indicate that snowmelt flooding over Xinjiang region usually occurred in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, especially in the Ili River Valley and Tacheng area, while snowmelt flooding most easily occurred for the time from mid March to early April. On the basis of it, climate background, weather process, diagnostic analysis were analyzed on the possible weather causes for snowmelt flooding occurring in mid March 2009. Finally we can see the basic condition for snowmelt flooding occurrence that the rainfall in February 2009 was obviously more than the average value in the same period of the past years, and air temperature rapidly and continually increased after the cold air passing through, all these may be the most possible causes for the snowmelt flooding in mid March 2009. During the durative and rapid heating process, the time for mean temperature being higher than 0 ℃, the highest temperature being higher than 5 ℃ as well as warm advection center appearing has the instructive significance to snowmelt flooding forecasting.
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基金项目:公益性行业科研专项“交通运输高影响天气预警技术研究”(GYHY200906037 02)、“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重大项目“山区公路网安全保障技术研究与示范工程”(2009BAG13A02)、中国气象局“十一五气象监测与灾害预警工程”项目、国家气象中心应用气象科研团队课题、2009年国家气象中心预报员专项课题共同资助
引用文本:
田华,杨晓丹,张国平,赵琳娜,王志,赵鲁强,2011.2009年3月中旬新疆融雪型洪水气象成因分析[J].气象,37(5):590-598.
TIAN Hua,YANG Xiaodan,ZHANG Guoping,ZHAO Linna,WANG Zhi,ZHAO Luqiang,2011.The Possible Weather Causes for Snowmelt Flooding in Xinjiang in Mid March 2009[J].Meteor Mon,37(5):590-598.