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投稿时间：2010-04-20 修订日期：2010-07-05
投稿时间：2010-04-20 修订日期：2010-07-05
中文摘要: 使用2007和2008年5-9月常规探空资料、微波辐射计和风廓线数据构建的特种探空资料以及BJ RUC模式探空资料计算的常用热动力物理参量，比较了在冰雹、雷暴大风和短时暴雨等强天气中特种探空和常规探空的各参量之间的差异，探讨了特种探空在强对流天气判别中定量应用的可靠性，最后选取不同强对流天气个例，详细对比分析了三种探空的物理参量在不同强对流天气发生前后的演变趋势。结果表明：（1）特种探空与常规探空的热动力物理参量在三种不同强天气中的表现基本一致。与常规探空相比，特种探空数据的时间分辨率高，各物理参量的变化特征表现更明显，能更详细地描述强天气发生前后大气状态的变化。（2）由特种探空计算的多种物理参量在不同强天气的酝酿、发展过程中差别明显，在强天气发生前3～6小时的变化趋势尤其明显，对于3类强天气的判别具有明确的短时临近预报意义。（3）与特种探空相比，模式探空的多数物理参量在强天气发生前后的变化趋势一致，低空垂直风切变最接近，而少数表征大气热力性质的物理参数的数值和转折时间仍有一定差别，尤其是模式对潜热释放过程的描述能力明显不足，几乎不能描述强对流云团发展过程中对流层中上层强烈的增温过程。因此，在使用模式探空参量制作强对流天气的潜势预报时，须辅以特种探空的实时探测数据计算的物理参量，对模式预报结果进行订正。
Abstract:Using the physical parameters calculated from data of conventional sounding, model forecast sounding of Beijing rapid update cycle forecast system (BJ RUC) and the special sounding constructed from the data detected by microwave radiometer and wind profiler during May to September 2007 and 2008, the difference of the physical parameters between the conventional sounding and the special sounding in the various severe convective weather processes was compared in detail. The availability of the special sounding to discriminate the various convective weather processes was discussed. Finally, the evolution trend of the physical parameters of three kinds of soundings in the hail, thunderstorm, heavy rainfall weather process was analyzed. Through the detailed analysis, some meaningful conclusions have been drawn. Firstly, the physical parameters from special sounding
has a same evolution trend as the conventional sounding in different convective weather processes. Moreover, the characteristics of parameters of special sounding are more significant than that of conventional sounding. Therefore it could give a more detailed description of the atmospheric stratification in the convective weather process. Secondly, there has an obvious difference of the parameters of special sounding in the process of various severe weather brewing and development, and it is significant especially during three to six hours before weather occurs. Thus the special sounding has a clear sense to the short term nowcasting of various severe weather. Thirdly, in most cases, special sounding could show the evolution of the parameters before and after the severe weather occurs. Model forecast sounding has a better performance, but the evolution of the parameters has a time difference with the observations. The parameters of convectional sounding could not well capture the characteristics evolution during the process of severe weather because of the low temporal resolution. Fourthly, to the thermal parameters, in most cases, there have similar values and the same trends between the model forecast sounding and the special sounding. Therefore, it is needed to revise the quantitative thresholds of the various parameters and then to summarize the screening criteria for severe weather discrimination, which can be used in BJ RUC forecast system to give the convective weather classification forecast.
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基金项目:本文得到国家公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200706004）、国家科技支撑计划项目“京津冀城市群高影响天气的特征和成因分析”(2008BAC37B01)和全国强对流预报专家团队的共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 魏东 | 北京市气象台， 北京 100089 |
| 孙继松 | 北京市气象台， 北京 100089 |
| 雷蕾 | 北京市气象台， 北京 100089 |
| 杨波 | 北京市气象台， 北京 100089 |
| 时少英 | 北京市气象台， 北京 100089 |
引用文本：
魏东,孙继松,雷蕾,杨波,时少英,2011.三种探空资料在各类强对流天气中的应用对比分析[J].气象,37(4):412-422.
WEI Dong,SUN Jisong,LEI Lei,YANG Bo,SHI Shaoying,2011.Comparative Analysis of Three Kinds of Sounding Data in the Application of the Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,37(4):412-422.
魏东,孙继松,雷蕾,杨波,时少英,2011.三种探空资料在各类强对流天气中的应用对比分析[J].气象,37(4):412-422.
WEI Dong,SUN Jisong,LEI Lei,YANG Bo,SHI Shaoying,2011.Comparative Analysis of Three Kinds of Sounding Data in the Application of the Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,37(4):412-422.