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投稿时间：2010-12-24 修订日期：2011-01-10
投稿时间：2010-12-24 修订日期：2011-01-10
中文摘要: 为了更好地应用T639模式的中期预报产品，本文对2010年9—11月T639模式的中期预报产品进行了天气学检验，并与ECMWF和日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明，三家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的演变和调整具有较好的预报能力，T639在144小时后预报性能减小比较明显。T639对超强台风凡亚比的路径预报偏差较大，而日本模式预报的强度偏弱。总体而言，ECMWF对各系统和要素的预报性能更加稳定和接近实况。
中文关键词: T639模式， 中期天气预报， 天气学检验
Abstract:In order to improve the ability of T639 model, the synoptic verification on its medium range forecasting in autumn is made in comparison with ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in the middle and high latitudes of Asian areas， but the T639 model shows a relative weak performance advanced 144 hours. The T639 model failed in forecasting the track and the JP model underestimated the intensity of FANAPI (No.1011). Compared with the T639 model and Japan model, the ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems and gets the most similar to the observation.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| ZHOU Ningfang | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
周宁芳,2011.2010年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,37(2):237-241.
ZHOU Ningfang,2011.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November in 2010[J].Meteor Mon,37(2):237-241.
周宁芳,2011.2010年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,37(2):237-241.
ZHOU Ningfang,2011.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November in 2010[J].Meteor Mon,37(2):237-241.