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气象:2011,37(1):31-38
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T213全球集合预报系统性误差订正研究
(1.国家气象中心, 北京 100081;2.国家环境预报中心, 马里兰州, 美国)
Study of Bias Correction in T213 Global Ensemble Forecast
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投稿时间:2009-12-10    修订日期:2010-02-26
中文摘要: 针对模式系统性误差一直存在的现状,研究使用卡尔曼滤波的自适应误差订正方法对国家气象中心业务全球集合预报系统的系统性误差进行估计和订正。本文主要介绍这种方法及其原理,其优点是需要的样本量比较小,能够快速经济地对模式产品进行有效的误差估计和订正。使用这种方法对全球T213集合预报系统500 hPa高度场、850 hPa温度场和2 m温度的预报产品进行一阶偏差订正,对订正前后集合预报产品进行检验分析和对比,结果表明,订正后的高层形势场集合预报和2 m温度集合预报的均一性、集合平均的均方根误差和距平相关系数都得到了改善,系统性偏差得到了不同程度的订正,对于存在较大系统性误差的2 m温度预报,订正效果尤其显著。
Abstract:In view of existence of model systematic error, a study of bias correction has been done to estimate and reduce systematic error. One moment bias correction has been introduced in this paper. The merit of this method is that quantity of samples needed is smaller, thus estimation and bias correction could be carried out quickly and economically. One moment bias correction towards T213 global ensemble forecast of 500 hPa height, 850 hPa temperature and 2 m temperature has been done. Verification towards raw forecast and bias corrected forecast shows that ensemble member homogeneity and cold bias have been improved, and ensemble mean RMSE and ACC also have been improved, especially bigger systematic error of 2 m temperature forecast has been improved obviously.
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基金项目:2007年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项“面向TIGGE的集合预报关键应用技术研究”(GYHY200706001)资助
引用文本:
李莉,李应林,田华,崔波,2011.T213全球集合预报系统性误差订正研究[J].气象,37(1):31-38.
LI Li,LI Yinglin,TIAN Hua,CUI Bo,2011.Study of Bias Correction in T213 Global Ensemble Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,37(1):31-38.