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投稿时间：2010-01-15 修订日期：2010-03-15
投稿时间：2010-01-15 修订日期：2010-03-15
中文摘要: 国家气象中心针对强天气预报的特点开发了强天气模式诊断变量和概率预报产品，包括T639全球模式强天气诊断变量产品、基于GRAPES_RUC的中尺度精细化强天气诊断变量产品、基于WRF中尺度模式的区域中尺度集合概率预报产品，于2009年从无到有建立了一套完整的强天气数值预报产品库，提供确定性预报产品和不确定信息的概率产品，为强天气预报业务的开展打下了良好的基础。应用上述产品对“6.3”河南飑线天气的模式预报能力的分析表明，高分辨率模式对强对流天气的预报能力有了较大的提高，但对于强天气预报，15 km分辨率仍然不足够高，且产品显示的时空分辨率都应在现有基础上提高，才能更好地展示数值预报产品对强对流过程发生发展和演变过程。
Abstract:The numerical weather prediction (NWP) products aiming to severe weather prediction, including T639, GRAPES_RUC,WRF EPS, were developed by Numerical Weather Prediction Division, NMC. Through the analysis of the squall line weather occurring in Henan Province on 3 June, 2009, it is showed that the high resolution models have improved to some extent forecasting severe weather. But the 15 km resolution is not so good enough to forecast severe weather. Higher temporal and spatial resolution is needed to better reveal the evolation of severe convection weather in the application of the NWP products.
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基金项目:中国气象局公益性行业专项 GYHY200706001、GYHY200806003，科技部国际合作项目2006DFA21530，国家自然科学基金No.40675061共同资助
引用文本：
陈静,佟华,徐枝芳,邓国,邓莲堂,谌芸,肖丹,崔应杰,王晓聪,朱国富,胡江凯,龚建东,2010.NMC强天气模式诊断变量和概率预报产品及初步应用检验[J].气象,36(12):41-49.
CHEN Jing,TONG Hua,XU Zhifang,DENG Guo,DENG Liantang,CHEN Yun,XIAO Dan,CUI Yingjie,WANG Xiaocong,ZHU Guofu,HU Jiangkai,GONG Jiandong,2010.NMC Technical Support and Applications of Numerical Prediction Diagnostic Products for Severe Weather Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,36(12):41-49.
陈静,佟华,徐枝芳,邓国,邓莲堂,谌芸,肖丹,崔应杰,王晓聪,朱国富,胡江凯,龚建东,2010.NMC强天气模式诊断变量和概率预报产品及初步应用检验[J].气象,36(12):41-49.
CHEN Jing,TONG Hua,XU Zhifang,DENG Guo,DENG Liantang,CHEN Yun,XIAO Dan,CUI Yingjie,WANG Xiaocong,ZHU Guofu,HU Jiangkai,GONG Jiandong,2010.NMC Technical Support and Applications of Numerical Prediction Diagnostic Products for Severe Weather Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,36(12):41-49.