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气象:2010,36(12):1-9
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对三套再分析资料中国大陆地区夏季降水量的评估分析
(1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081;2.大理国家气候观象台, 大理 671003;3.国家气候中心, 北京 100081;4.中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;5.中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;6.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049)
Evaluation and Analyses of Summer Rainfall over Mainland China in Three Reanalysis Datasets
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投稿时间:2010-06-03    修订日期:2010-08-07
中文摘要: 以中国台站降水为参照,评估分析了三套再分析资料(NCEP/DOE,ERA和JRA)对中国夏季降水场的再现能力。结果显示,三套资料均能基本再现夏季降水量分布的主要特征,亦能较好刻画大部分地区降水的年际和季节内变化特征,但同时也存在诸多问题:NCEP资料在青藏高原东坡存在一个虚假降水中心,且对中西部和西南地区夏季降水的季节内演变特征再现能力较差;ERA资料降水量系统性偏小,且不能合理描述中西部地区降水的年际变化;JRA资料高估了华南沿海地区的降水量。三套资料均存在高估弱降水、低估强降水的问题。对日降水量≥ 0.1 mm的降水事件进行TS、BS评分,三套资料的TS评分在0.6左右,BS评分在1.5左右;随着参与评分的降水等级的提升,两项评分都迅速下降,三套资料对暴雨的预报评分都非常低。通过分析可了解当前较先进的数值预报模式在基本真实的环流场强迫下对我国夏季降水的预报能力,认识模式中物理参数化过程导致的模拟偏差,为模式发展和评估提供参照。
Abstract:The summer rainfall data in China represented by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP/DOE, ERA and JRA) are evaluated by comparing with the products of the station rainfall data in this study. Results show that the main characteritics of summer rainfall distribution in China are reasonably reproduced in three datasets, and most of the interannual and intraseasonal variations are captured. However, there are still some deficiencies in all of the three reanalysis rainfall products. In the NCEP product, an artificial rainfall center is located over the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, and the intraseasonal evolution of summer rainfall in midwestern and southwestern regions is poorly represented. In the ERA product, the rainfall amount is systematically underestimated and the interannual variation of rainfall over the midwestern regions is not well simulated. In the JRA product, the rainfall over coastal regions of South China is overestimated. The overestimation of weak rainfall and underestimation of heavy rainfall can be found in all of the three products. Concerning the TS and BS scores of the rainfall events with daily amount larger than 0.1 mm, the TS scrore is around 0.6 and the BS scrore is about 1.5 for all the reanalysis rainfall products. However, with the upgrade of rainfall rates, both of the scores decrease rapidly. The scores of torrential rain are very low for all reanalysis products. The analyses in this work not only indicate the capability of current advanced numerical models in simulating summer rainfall in China under the realistic circulation forcings, but also help to understand the simulation biases resulting from physical parameterization. Results would potentially contribute to the model development and evaluation in future.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2010CB951900)和国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:40625014,40921003和40705025)的共同资助
引用文本:
李建,宇如聪,陈昊明,原韦华,2010.对三套再分析资料中国大陆地区夏季降水量的评估分析[J].气象,36(12):1-9.
LI Jian,YU Rucong,CHEN Haoming,YUAN Weihua,2010.Evaluation and Analyses of Summer Rainfall over Mainland China in Three Reanalysis Datasets[J].Meteor Mon,36(12):1-9.