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气象:2010,36(11):120-125
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预报因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台
(1.云南省气象科学研究所,  昆明  650034;2.云南省玉溪市气象局, 玉溪  653100;3.云南省气象台, 昆明  650034)
Forecast Factors Selection and the Man Machine Conversation Platform Establishment by Building Equation
(1.Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Kunming 650034;2.Yuxi Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province, Yuxi 653100;3.Yunnan Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650034)
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投稿时间:2008-03-19    修订日期:2010-07-15
中文摘要: 利用计算机技术,将预报因子选取、方程建立和样本拟合融为一体,建立了预报因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台。该平台包括文件信息,因子初选和回归分析三个模块:(1)文件信息模块主要是读取预报对象文件和预报因子文件,显示并检查文件头信息样本长度的一致性;(2)因子初选模块主要是计算各气象要素或物理量场中每个格点因子与预报量之间的相关系数,构成各相关场,分析这些相关场及其关键区域,从中筛选出组合因子;(3)回归分析模块是对选入的组合因子与预报对象进行逐步回归计算,建立预报方程,并根据回归方程参数和样本拟合率,通过改变因子引入和剔除标准来调整回归结果。
Abstract:Using the calculator technique forecast factor selection, equation establishment and sample fitting into a composite ensemble are integrated,and the forecast factor selection and man machine conversation platform by building forecast equation are established. This platform has three modules, i.e. document information module, factor primary election module and regression analysis module, which can be described as follows:(1)The document information module is mainly reading the forecast the object document and forecast factor document, examining and displaying the consistency of information length in file header; (2)The factor primary election module is mainly calculating the weather factor or physical quantity field’s correlativity between each of grid point factors and the amount of forecast field, and through analysis of this correlation field the combination factors are finally found out; (3) The regression analysis module is carrying on stepwise regression towards forecasting object and combination factor which has picked up from the equation by the second module, and then the forecasting equation is build up, and according to the regression equation’s parameter and the rate of sample fitting and through changing the standards for picking up and getting rid of regression results are adjusted.
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基金项目:云南省科技攻关及高新技术计划 2006SG25资助
引用文本:
段旭,丁圣,许美玲,2010.预报因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台[J].气象,36(11):120-125.
DUAN Xu,DING Sheng,XU Meiling,2010.Forecast Factors Selection and the Man Machine Conversation Platform Establishment by Building Equation[J].Meteor Mon,36(11):120-125.