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气象:2010,36(10):21-28
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国庆60周年演练中一次降水过程的短时预报服务
(北京市气象台, 北京 100089)
Very Short-Range Forecast Service of a Rainfall Event During the National Day Celebration Rehearsals
(Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2010-01-08    修订日期:2010-05-12
中文摘要: 由于降水的原因,原定于2009年9月5日晚间的国庆60周年彩排向后平移24小时进行。在预报北京地区有连阴雨的天气背景下,利用风云2C、新一代天气雷达网、地面自动站、垂直风廓线、微波辐射计等多种高时空分辨率探测资料,结合BJ RUC产品,对北京天安门降水进行精细化的短时预报。通过采取严密监视天气变化,跟进式精细化预报服务的措施,顺利完成了这次重大气象服务的保障任务。再次证明多种新型探测资料在对大气物理状况的释用,填补常规探测资料时空分布的不足等方面的应用价值,这些资料有助于对天气系统位置、强度变化的确定;雷达回波拼图可以得到较大范围降雨区的位置、移向和移速,在天气系统较为稳定的情况下可以进行2小时以上的外推。
Abstract:Predicted rainfall in the area of the Tian’anmen Square, the site for the first round grand National Day celebration rehearsal, had prompted Chinese authorities to postpone the date for the second round from 5 September. 2009 to the next day. By utilizing the monitoring data of FY 2C, the new generation weather radar network, automatic weather stations, wind profile, and microwave radiometer etc., with the combination of the products of BJ RUC model, the very short range forecast for the rainfall event in the area of the Tian’anmen Square was produced, and the tailored meteorological service was provided, then the good service effect had achieved. Through the forecasting service, it is proved that comprehensive monitoring data are very useful for the explanation and application to the status of atmospheric physics and making up the lack of temporal and spatial distribution of conventional data. The data are helpful for the determination of the position and variation of the synoptic system, even the extrapolation beyond 2 hours.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(200906039)和中央公益性科研院所专项(IUMKY200904)共同资助
引用文本:
郭虎,王令,时少英,郭金兰,王国荣,2010.国庆60周年演练中一次降水过程的短时预报服务[J].气象,36(10):21-28.
GUO Hu,WANG Ling,SHI Shaoying,GUO Jinlan,WANG Guorong,2010.Very Short-Range Forecast Service of a Rainfall Event During the National Day Celebration Rehearsals[J].Meteor Mon,36(10):21-28.