气候变化对重庆高温和旱涝灾害的影响

白莹莹; 高阳华; 张焱; 李永华; 王中

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2010.9.008

气象:2010,36(9):47-54

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气候变化对重庆高温和旱涝灾害的影响

白莹莹^1,2, 高阳华³, 张焱⁴, 李永华³, 王中⁵

(1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所，成都 610072;2. 重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆 401147;3.重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆 401147;4.重庆市气象台，重庆 401147;5.重庆市人工影响天气办公室，重庆 401147)

Impact of Climate Changes on High Temperature， Drought and Flood Disasters of Chongqing

BAI Yingying^1,2, GAO Yanghua³, ZHANG Yan⁴, LI Yonghua³, WANG Zhong⁵

(1.Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chengdu 610072;2. Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147;3.Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147;4.Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147;5.Chongqing Weather Modification Office, Chongqing 401147)

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投稿时间：2008-12-18 修订日期：2009-11-24

中文摘要: 利用重庆地区1961—2006年逐日气象观测资料，研究了气候变化对重庆高温和旱涝灾害的影响。结果表明：重庆区域显著的增暖开始于20世纪90年代后期，突变检验结果显示气温距平的突变出现在1997年。增暖后，极端高温事件发生频次增加趋势明显，高温热浪风险显著上升，极端降水事件发生频次也呈现出显著增加趋势, 洪涝灾害的风险不断上升。进一步分析了区域平均各级别降水日数的变化趋势，结果显示小雨和中雨日数减少趋势明显，使得干旱的风险增大。将区域平均气温距平序列分为全球气候变化对重庆区域平均气温的影响和重庆区域平均气

中文关键词: 重庆地区，气候变化，极端事件，高温，旱涝

Abstract:Daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2006 of Chongqing area have been employed to diagnose the impact of climate changes on high temperature,drought and flood disasters of Chongqing. Results show that significant warming of Chongqing area began at late 1990s. The abrupt temperature change occurred in 1997. During warming period, extreme high temperature event increased obviously, the risk of heat wave rose significantly, meanwhile extreme precipitation event also increased obviously, the risk of flood rose significantly. Furthermore, the trends of each grade regional average precipitation days have been analyzed, the precipitation days of light and moderate rain decrease obviously, which may lead to the risk of drought to increase significantly. Put regional temperature anomalies into two parts, one is the impact of global climate changes on it, the other is regional self variability. It was found that the contribution of global climate changes to regional temperature variations increased significantly during warming period. Then we calculated the contributions of global climate changes and regional self variability in 2006, respectively, results suggest that global climate changes and regional self variability may cause the abnormal high temperature of 2006, but regional self-variability is the main contributor.

keywords: Chongqing area, climate changes, extreme event, high temperature, drought and flood

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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划重大项目（2007BAC03A06），国家自然科学基金项目（40975058），中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放实验室基金项目（LPM2009008，LPM200814），重庆市自然科学基金计划重点项目（CSTC2008BA0022,CSTC2009BB7248），国务院三峡工程建设委员会办公室生态环境补偿经费（SX2009 004）共同资助

作者	单位
白莹莹	中国气象局成都高原气象研究所，成都 610072  重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆 401147
高阳华	重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆 401147
张焱	重庆市气象台，重庆 401147
李永华	重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆 401147
王中	重庆市人工影响天气办公室，重庆 401147

Author Name	Affiliation
BAI Yingying	Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chengdu 610072  Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147
GAO Yanghua	Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147
ZHANG Yan	Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147
LI Yonghua	Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147
WANG Zhong	Chongqing Weather Modification Office, Chongqing 401147

引用文本：
白莹莹,高阳华,张焱,李永华,王中,2010.气候变化对重庆高温和旱涝灾害的影响[J].气象,36(9):47-54.
BAI Yingying,GAO Yanghua,ZHANG Yan,LI Yonghua,WANG Zhong,2010.Impact of Climate Changes on High Temperature， Drought and Flood Disasters of Chongqing[J].Meteor Mon,36(9):47-54.