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气象:2010,36(6):50-58
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一次局地大暴雨的落区分析与预报
(1.天津市气象台, 天津 300074;2.天津市气象科研所, 天津 300074)
Analysis and Forecast of a Local Rainstorm Event
(1.Tianjin Meteorological Observatory, Tianjin 300074;2.Tianjin Institute of Meteorology, Tianjin 300074)
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投稿时间:2009-06-02    修订日期:2009-11-13
中文摘要: 应用常规天气资料、地面加密自动站资料、FY 2C红外TBB资料和多普勒雷达资料,并引用中尺度对流复合体(MCC)β中尺度单元(MBE)移动概念模型,对2007 年7 月18 日天津地区出现的强雷雨、局地大暴雨天气进行了分析。结果表明:局地大暴雨是在大范围的有利天气条件下产生的,降水具有明显的β中尺度强对流系统特征;强降水出现在“人”字型回波带的头部,落区位置与中气旋的位置相对应;从地面加密自动站资料也能很好地分析出强降水雨区的位置和移动方向。通过分析FY 2C红外TBB资料表明:强降水出现在MCC中冷云顶区的右后侧,且降水强度在MCC中出现强冷云顶区时达到最强。应用MCCβ中尺度单元(MBE)移动的概念模型,通过判断MBE的移动,可以很好地预报出强降水下一时刻的具体落区位置,从而为该地区强雷雨、局地大暴雨落区的短时临近预报提供一种新的方法。
Abstract:Based on the conventional data, automatic weather station data, Doppler radar observational data, and FY 2C TBB data, together with the conceptual model of the mesoscale convective complex motion,the strongest thunderstorm and rainstorm event in North China area on 18 July 2007 has been analyzed. The results show that the local rainstorm is presented the obvious character of a mesoscale convective system which is produced under the large scale advantageous condition. The strong rainfall occurred at the head of the Lamdba shaped echo, and the falling area of rainstorm is associated with the meso cyclone. The analyses of automatic weather station data illustrate that the rainfall region and moving direction can be found. In addition, the rainstorm occurred at the right backside of the MCC and the precipitation intensity is the strongest when the cloud top temperature is the lowest. According to the motion of the meso β scale element (MBE), it can forecast the next region of the rainstorm which provides a new way for the nowcasting of the local rainstorm.
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基金项目:国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重点项目,城市群高影响天气预报系统的集成和业务示范(2008BAC37B05)
引用文本:
东高红,解以扬,于莉莉,2010.一次局地大暴雨的落区分析与预报[J].气象,36(6):50-58.
DONG Gaohong,XIE Yiyang,YU Lili,2010.Analysis and Forecast of a Local Rainstorm Event[J].Meteor Mon,36(6):50-58.