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投稿时间：2010-04-01 修订日期：2010-04-08
投稿时间：2010-04-01 修订日期：2010-04-08
中文摘要: 对2009年12月至2010年2月T639、 ECMWF（以下简称EC）及Japan（以下简称JP）数值模式的预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：各家模式对亚洲中高纬度大尺度环流的演变和调整以及对流层低层温度变化都有较好的预报能力，不同时段性能不同，没有明显的系统性偏差；对冬季南支槽的预报，与EC模式相比，T639模式和日本模式预报的强度和移速误差较大；对于寒潮地面冷高压的预报，EC模式好于T639模式，而T639模式又好于日本模式。
Abstract:It was verified and compared that the performance of T639, ECMWF and Japan models about their medium range forecasting during Dec. 2009 to Feb. 2010. The results show that the three models have good performance for the evolvement and adjustment of atmospheric circulation situation and the temperature trends of in the lower troposphere in Asian middle and high latitude areas. Compared with the EC model, T639 and JP models have some larger errors for the forecast of trough in the Bay of Bengal. For the high pressure of cold wave, EC model has the best performance for the location and strength of cold anticyclone central， T639 model is better than Japan model in the aspect.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| LI Yong | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
李勇,2010.2009年12月至2010年2月T639、ECMWF及日本数值模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,36(5):108-113.
LI Yong,2010.The Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from Dec. 2009 to Feb. 2010[J].Meteor Mon,36(5):108-113.
李勇,2010.2009年12月至2010年2月T639、ECMWF及日本数值模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,36(5):108-113.
LI Yong,2010.The Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from Dec. 2009 to Feb. 2010[J].Meteor Mon,36(5):108-113.