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投稿时间：2008-10-21 修订日期：2009-09-18
投稿时间：2008-10-21 修订日期：2009-09-18
中文摘要: 为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品，对2009年9—11月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天
气学检验，并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明：3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流
形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看，ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接
近实况；日本模式和T639模式次之；ECMWF模式对0917号热带风暴芭玛（Parma）的预报较为
成功，T639模式稳定性较差，而日本模式对“芭玛”的预报无论是路径还是强度都存在较大
偏差。
中文关键词: T639模式， 中期天气预报， 天气学检验
Abstract:In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, some syno
ptic verification on its medium range forecasting in 2009 autumn is made in
comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the thr
ee models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large scale ci
rculation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a
whole, ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with
the T639 and Japan models. Taking tropical storm No.0917 (Parma) as a case, it
is found that ECMWF model gets the most correct results, and that T639 model has
poor stability, whereas Japan model completely failed in forecasting the track
and the intensity of Parma.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| CAI Xiangning | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
蔡芗宁,2010.2009年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,36(2):130-135.
CAI Xiangning,2010.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639， ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2009[J].Meteor Mon,36(2):130-135.
蔡芗宁,2010.2009年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,36(2):130-135.
CAI Xiangning,2010.Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639， ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2009[J].Meteor Mon,36(2):130-135.