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投稿时间：2009-03-26 修订日期：2009-04-27
投稿时间：2009-03-26 修订日期：2009-04-27
中文摘要: 利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品，应用天气分析和诊断分析方法，并结合宁夏寒潮预报系
统的预报结果，对2008年12月2—4日和12月20—21日宁夏出现的两次典型寒潮天气过程进行
对比分析，结果表明：两次过程均是在前期强烈升温的基础上，有强冷空气在西西伯利亚及
贝加尔湖堆积并向南侵袭造成的；两次过程亚洲中高纬环流形势均表现为“一脊一槽”型，
动力机制均为高空旋转低压槽与强锋区，促使寒潮爆发的流场均为“低槽旋转型”；冷空气
爆发后，宁夏上空均由强盛的冷平流控制，地面冷高压均进入关键区并达到寒潮强度；但由
于寒潮发生的环流背景、影响系统及冷空气的强度、发展、移动路径不同，因此两次过程的
降温幅度和对宁夏造成的影响也不同。在此基础上，总结出宁夏冬季寒潮天气的预报着眼点
。
Abstract:Based on the daily observation data and numerical forecast products，two typical
severe cold wave processes during 2-4 and 20-21， December 2008 have been analy
ze
d， utilizing synoptic and diagnostic analyses and the forecasting result from t
h
e cold wave forecasting system of Ningxia．The results showed that, based on
the
warming strongly before the twice cold wave，strong cold air was accumulated in
West Siberia and Baikal Lake and broke out southward； the circulation pattern
s showed a trough and a ridge at middle and high latitudes in Asia, dynamic
mechanisms were an upper rotating low pressure trough and
strong front zo
ne， and the stream fields leading to outbreak of cold wave were the low trough rotating patt
ern during twice cold wave；
after the outbreak of cold air， strong cold advection controlled Ningxia and co
ld high pressure entered into the key areas and reached cold wave intensity. How
ever because of the differences of circulation background, the weather impact sy
stem as well as the intensity, development and moving path of cold air currents,
the cooling range and the impact on Ningxia of the two cold wave processes were
different． The main forecast factors of winter cold wave in Ningxia were put f
orward based on the above analyses.
Based on the daily observation data and numerical forecast products，two typical
severe cold wave processes during 2-4 and 20-21， December 2008 have been analy
ze
d， utilizing synoptic and diagnostic analyses and the forecasting result from t
h
e cold wave forecasting system of Ningxia．The results showed that, based on
the
warming strongly before the twice cold wave，strong cold air was accumulated in
West Siberia and Baikal Lake and broke out southward； the circulation pattern
s showed a trough and a ridge at middle and high latitudes in Asia, dynamic
mechanisms were an upper rotating low pressure trough and
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40965008）；宁夏自然基金项目（NZ09200和NZ
08158）及中国气象局2009年重点工程建设项目“宁夏精细化气象要素预报业务系统”资助
引用文本：
陈豫英,陈楠,邵建,聂晶鑫,马金仁,2009.2008年12月两次寒潮天气对比分析[J].气象,35(11):29-38.
Chen Yuying,Chen Nan,Shao Jian,Nie Jingxin,Ma Jinren,2009.Comparative Analyses of Two Cold Wave Processes in December 2008[J].Meteor Mon,35(11):29-38.
陈豫英,陈楠,邵建,聂晶鑫,马金仁,2009.2008年12月两次寒潮天气对比分析[J].气象,35(11):29-38.
Chen Yuying,Chen Nan,Shao Jian,Nie Jingxin,Ma Jinren,2009.Comparative Analyses of Two Cold Wave Processes in December 2008[J].Meteor Mon,35(11):29-38.