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投稿时间：2009-05-06 修订日期：2009-06-29
投稿时间：2009-05-06 修订日期：2009-06-29
中文摘要: 应用2008年奥运期间（6—10月）所使用的多种中尺度数值预报业务运行模式GRA
PES＿MESO15km（GRAPES）、华北中尺度模式（MM5）和北京区域气象中心的快速更新循环同
化预报系统（RUC），对北京市24小时定量降水预报产品采用多个统计量进行了较详细的统
计检验，并应用多元回归方法对多种模式的降水预报产品进行了集成试验。检验结果表明:
GRAPES＿MESO15km模式对奥运期间北京市晴雨及小雨预报具有较好的预报能力，而RUC产品
对中雨及以上量级的降水预报则表现出较好的预报效果，这对今后北京市精细化降水预报具
有一定参考价值。
Abstract:The GRAPES_MESO15km, MM5 and BJ RUC (rapid assimilation forecast update cycle s
ystem of Beijing) were used in the meteorological services for the Beijing 2008
Olympic Games. The prediction qualities of 24 h quantitative precipitation fore
cast products of these models were examined in detail. Firstly, some statistics
were calculated, such as the correlation coefficient, TS, FAR, RMSE etc. Then, b
y
use of the multiple regression method, the integration test to the precipitatio
n forecast products of multiple models was taken. The results show that GRAPES_M
ESO15km model has a good forecasting performance in the aspect of forecasts for
light rain and raining or not, while RUC has a good forecasting capability to
the moderate and greater rain. The verification results have a good reference value for the futu
re refinement precipitation forecast in Beijing.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:973“我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究项目—高分辨、
非静力中尺度暴雨数值预报模式的发展及其预报系统的建立”课题（2004CB418306）和中国
气象局北京城市气象研究所城市气象科学研究基金项目（UMRF200706）
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| You Fengchun | Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089 |
| Wei Dong | Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089 |
| Wang Yu | National Meteorological Center |
引用文本：
尤凤春,魏东,王雨,2009.北京奥运期间多模式降水检验及集成试验[J].气象,35(11):3-8.
You Fengchun,Wei Dong,Wang Yu,2009.Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games[J].Meteor Mon,35(11):3-8.
尤凤春,魏东,王雨,2009.北京奥运期间多模式降水检验及集成试验[J].气象,35(11):3-8.
You Fengchun,Wei Dong,Wang Yu,2009.Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games[J].Meteor Mon,35(11):3-8.