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气象:2009,35(11):3-8
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北京奥运期间多模式降水检验及集成试验
(1.北京市气象台,北京 100089;2.国家气象中心)
Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
(1.Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089;2.National Meteorological Center)
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投稿时间:2009-05-06    修订日期:2009-06-29
中文摘要: 应用2008年奥运期间(6—10月)所使用的多种中尺度数值预报业务运行模式GRA PES_MESO15km(GRAPES)、华北中尺度模式(MM5)和北京区域气象中心的快速更新循环同 化预报系统(RUC),对北京市24小时定量降水预报产品采用多个统计量进行了较详细的统 计检验,并应用多元回归方法对多种模式的降水预报产品进行了集成试验。检验结果表明: GRAPES_MESO15km模式对奥运期间北京市晴雨及小雨预报具有较好的预报能力,而RUC产品 对中雨及以上量级的降水预报则表现出较好的预报效果,这对今后北京市精细化降水预报具 有一定参考价值。
中文关键词: 多模式  降水产品  检验  集成试验
Abstract:The GRAPES_MESO15km, MM5 and BJ RUC (rapid assimilation forecast update cycle s ystem of Beijing) were used in the meteorological services for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The prediction qualities of 24 h quantitative precipitation fore cast products of these models were examined in detail. Firstly, some statistics were calculated, such as the correlation coefficient, TS, FAR, RMSE etc. Then, b y use of the multiple regression method, the integration test to the precipitatio n forecast products of multiple models was taken. The results show that GRAPES_M ESO15km model has a good forecasting performance in the aspect of forecasts for light rain and raining or not, while RUC has a good forecasting capability to the moderate and greater rain. The verification results have a good reference value for the futu re refinement precipitation forecast in Beijing.
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基金项目:973“我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究项目—高分辨、 非静力中尺度暴雨数值预报模式的发展及其预报系统的建立”课题(2004CB418306)和中国 气象局北京城市气象研究所城市气象科学研究基金项目(UMRF200706)
引用文本:
尤凤春,魏东,王雨,2009.北京奥运期间多模式降水检验及集成试验[J].气象,35(11):3-8.
You Fengchun,Wei Dong,Wang Yu,2009.Examination and Integration Test of the Precipitation Forecast Product of Multiple Models During 2008 Beijing Olympic Games[J].Meteor Mon,35(11):3-8.