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投稿时间：2009-04-16
投稿时间：2009-04-16
中文摘要: 对2008年12月至2009年2月T639、ECMWF、日本模式的中期预报性能进行了检验和
对比分析。结果表明：3种模式对大气环流的演变和调整、850hPa温度升降变化趋势均有较
强的预报能力，其中尤以ECMWF模式预报误差最小。3种模式对重大灾害性、转折性天气过程
也有很好的指示性能，较成功地预报了3次全国性寒潮天气过程、长江中下游地区持续阴雨
天气过程的大气环流形势特征及主要影响系统。
Abstract:It was verified and compared that the performance of T639, ECMWF and Japan model
about their medium range forecasting during Dec. 2008 to Feb. 2009. The result
shows that the three models have good performances for the evolvement and adjus
tment of atmospheric circulation situation in Asia middle and high latitude area
, and also for the temperature trends of 850hPa. The prediction error of ECMWF m
odel is minimal in that of the three models. They all show significant indicatio
n to forecast the transition and disaster weather processes, and have successful
ly predicted the atmospheric circulation situation and main effecting synoptic s
ystems of the three cold wave processes on a national scale, and continuous rain
fall weather process occurring in the middle lower reaches of Yangtze River.
keywords: the performance of medium range weather forecasting synoptic verification contrast and analysis
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Niu Ruoyun | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
牛若芸,2009.2008年12月至2009年2月T639与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,35(5):112-119.
Niu Ruoyun,2009.The Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from Dec. 2008 to Feb. 2009[J].Meteor Mon,35(5):112-119.
牛若芸,2009.2008年12月至2009年2月T639与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,35(5):112-119.
Niu Ruoyun,2009.The Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from Dec. 2008 to Feb. 2009[J].Meteor Mon,35(5):112-119.