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气象:2009,35(4):76-86
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强台风黑格比的路径和降水诊断分析
(海南省气象台, 海口 570203)
Diagnostic Analysis on the Track and Precipitation of Strong Typhoon Hagupit
(Meteorological Observatory of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203)
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投稿时间:2009-01-11    修订日期:2009-02-25
中文摘要: 利用 1°×1°的NCEP全球再分析资料和常规气象要素、中尺度自动站、地面加密探测和多 普勒雷达等资料,综合分析环流背景对强台风黑格比的路径和降水变化的影响,并对黑格比 影响过程的物理量特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:(1) 台风路径稳定西北偏西行的主要原因 是500hPa副高为带状分布,副高南侧边缘偏东和东南引导气流加强,台风北侧最大东风风速 与南侧的最大西风风速之差增大;(2) 多普勒雷达基本反射率分析发现对流单体回波在雨带 的上游(海上)发展,移动到下游(陆地)迅速减弱;空中垂直液态含水量对于台风降水的 演变趋势、降水量估测和降水落区有较好的指示意义。在台风暴雨系统中垂直累积液态含水 量产品,由于液态含水量的密实程度不同,降水效率差异极大,有时可使降水量的差异达到 2.5倍甚至更大;多普勒雷达产品1小时降水量与实际降水落区和降水量有较好的一致性,而 降水落区的表现最好。1小时降水量产品与雷达反射率以及空中垂直液态含水量产品有着很 好的对应关系。(3)“黑格比”在西北偏西移动过程中其垂直运动、涡度、水汽通量散度等 各物理量场均表现出有利于降水加大的特征。
中文关键词: 强台风  路径  降水  诊断分析
Abstract:Based on 1°×1°NCEP reanalysis data of 2008, conventional meteorological data, automatic station data, surface intensive observations and Doppler radar echo, the influences of circulation background on the track and precipitation of stron g typhoon Hagupit are synthetically analyzed, and the physical characteristi cs are also diagnostic analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The main reason why typhoon move west northwest steadily is that on 500hPa level, the z onalsubtropical high on the north strengthens the east flow and rear southeast flow, and the differences between maximum east wind on the north and maximum west wind on the south increase; (2) Analysis of Doppler radar base reflectivity products show s that the convective echo in rain belt develops on the upstream sea, but quickl y weakens when it moves downstream towards to the land. The vertical integrated liquid water (VIL) is a good indicator to the estimate of precipitation both on amount and area. In the typhoon rainfall system, the different density of liquid water in cloud can make big difference in precipitation with same VIL, sometime s the difference may reach 2.5 times or more. Doppler radar product OHP (one hou r precipitation) is consistent with actual precipitation area and amount very we ll, especially with precipitation area, and OHP has a good corresponding relatio nship with both R and VIL products; (3) Physical characteristics, such as vertic al motion, vorticity and water vapor flux divergence, all are in favor of precip itation increase when “Hagupit” moves west northwest.
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杨昌贤,陈红,郭冬艳,李云艳,2009.强台风黑格比的路径和降水诊断分析[J].气象,35(4):76-86.
Yang Changxian,Chen Hong,Guo Dongyan,Li Yunyan,2009.Diagnostic Analysis on the Track and Precipitation of Strong Typhoon Hagupit[J].Meteor Mon,35(4):76-86.