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气象:2009,35(3):112-119
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2008年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
The Performance Verification of Medium range Forecasting for T639 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from September to November 2008
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投稿时间:2009-02-13    
中文摘要: 为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2008年9—11月T639模式的96小时预报进行天气学 检验,并与ECMWF、日本全球数值模式的产品进行了对比分析。结果表明:3种模式均对亚洲 中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的中期预报性能,对转折性、灾害性天气的预报有较 强指示意义。综合来看,ECMWF模式对主要天气系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T6 39模式预报表现稍差,稳定性不如ECMWF模式,特别是对0814号强台风黑格比的96小时预 报基本失败。
Abstract:In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, some synoptic verif ication about its medium-range forecasting for 2008 autumn is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large-scale circulation e volution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude area, and they all sho w significant indication to forecast the transition and the weather disaster. As a whole, ECMWF model is better in forecasting key weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Especially, T639 and Japan models have failed in pre dicting path and intensity of strong typhoon HAGUPIT, whereas ECMWF model are re latively accurate.
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张涛,2009.2008年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,35(3):112-119.
Zhang Tao,2009.The Performance Verification of Medium range Forecasting for T639 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from September to November 2008 [J].Meteor Mon,35(3):112-119.