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气象:2009,35(2):111-118
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1954—2007年云南农业气候变化研究
(云南省气候中心, 昆明 650034)
Research on Staple Agro climate Changes for Recent 54 Years in Yunnan
(Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034)
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投稿时间:2008-03-18    修订日期:2008-08-18
中文摘要: 为弄清主要农业气候要素和农业气候年型变化规律和特征。基于多站点气候资料,对表征云 南农业气候特点的17个初选气候因子,进行经验正交(EOF)分解提取主成分因子,再应用系 统聚类法划分农业气候年型。结果得到7个相互独立的主成分因子和6种农业气候年型,可客 观表述云南主要农业气候变化特征。1954年以来云南农业主要生长季气候变暖趋势明显;降 水量和日照时数比气温年际波动大,日照变化又比降水量明显;春旱强度有减弱的趋势,阴 雨寡照逐渐加重;1990年代中期以来气候变暖明显加剧,同时日照时数波动振幅大、夏季雨 量有递减趋势;1995年以来云南主要受两种农业气候年型影响,1999—2007年的主要气候年 型在1950年代、1960年代和1970年代均未曾出现。气候变化对农业的利弊影响都十分显著。
中文关键词: 农业气候变化  EOF分析  系统聚类
Abstract:The features of changes for agro climatic elements and agro climatic m atching types in Yunnan were investigated. On the basis of historical climatic d ata from observed stations, orthogonal expansion method was used to extract stap le components from 17 climatic factors for three periods amid anniversary denoti ng local agro climatic features. And hierarchical cluster method was employed t o divide agro climatic matching classes of Yunnan. As the results of this resea rch, the principal changes of agro climatic elements and annual agro climatic types were summarized by 7 principal components independent of each other and 6 annual agro climatic types. The research shows that there was a trend of climate warming during the principa l season of Yunnan agriculture among the recent 54 years and it has been reinfor ced since 1990s. On the other hand, the annual changes of precipitation and suns hine duration were more conspicuous than airtemperature; the amplitude of sunshine duration was at least equivalent to one of precipitation; the drought strength in spring was decreasing; successive rain ing and shortened sunshine duration have an aggravated trend. With the reinforce ment of climate warming since 1995, the precipitation in summer has a decreasing trend whilst the amplitude of sunshine duration is large. From 1954-2007, only the minority of years has the agro climatic type analogous to their previous ye ars. Moreover, there are only 2 agro climatic types mainly affecting Yunnan reg ion since 1995. And the dominating agro climatic type arisen since the end of l ast century did not occur in 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, which has distinctive clima tic traits. The effects of these climate changes on agriculture in Yunnan are wo rth paying close attention. This research is very helpful to evaluating climatic influence, predicting agricultural production and undertaking meteorological se rvices.
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黄中艳,朱勇,2009.1954—2007年云南农业气候变化研究[J].气象,35(2):111-118.
Huang Zhongyan,Zhu Yong,2009.Research on Staple Agro climate Changes for Recent 54 Years in Yunnan[J].Meteor Mon,35(2):111-118.