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气象:2008,34(12):36-43
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直接同化卫星辐射率资料在暴雨预报中的应用研究
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Application Analysis of Direct Assimilation of Satellite Radiation Data on Hea vy Rain Forecasting
(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2008-01-10    修订日期:2008-09-26
中文摘要: 为了考察T213-SSI同化全球ATOVS卫星辐射率微波资料在极端暴雨事件预报中的应用效果和 能力,评估和分析卫星资料的应用对极端暴雨事件预报效果的影响,利用T213-SSI准业务 同化系统,对2007年7月16—19日的川渝地区暴雨过程进行了模拟分析。此次暴雨过程致 灾严重,同时是一次预报难度很大的、西风带系统调整下的转折性天气过程,非常值得研究 。共开展了3组模拟试验:第一组试验只同化常规资 料;第二组试验连续同化10天常规资料和卫星微波资料,第三组试验只同化一个时次、分别 使用常规资料和不同波段微波资料(AMSUA和AMSUB)。结果表明: (1)仅同化一次卫星资 料 的暴雨预报不及连续同化10天卫星资料的效果好,说明卫星资料的使用需要有较长时间的累 积才能产生较好效果; (2)卫星资料的长期使用可以改进大尺度环境场,使得暴雨天气过 程 的直接影响系统更接近实际; (3)AMSUA资料对温度场的调整有较大贡献,AMSUB资料对湿 度场也有较为明显的影响。
Abstract:To examine the ability of T213-SSI system on heavy rain forecasting, a nd to evaluate the application of satellite data on numerical prediction of heav y rain, this study used T213-SSI system to numerically simulate the heavy rai n fall in Sichuan Basin during July 16-19, 2007. This process was transition pr ocess of precipitation under adjusting of westerlies system and caused severe da mage. It is very difficult to be predicted and is very deserved to be researched . Three experiments are completed in this study using different data during diff erent period. The first experiment only uses conventional observations; the seco nd uses conventional observations and satellite microwave data during continuous 10 days. The last experiment uses conventional observation and satellite microw ave data during 6 hours. The results show that the second experiment is better t han the third. It means that satellite data need to be used for a long time to a chieve a good effect. In addition, employing of long time satellite data can imp rove large scale environmental flow. Thus, the heavy rain process will be close r to the truth. In the end, AMSU-A and AMSU-B data are very influential to the temperature and moisture fields respectively.
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基金项目:国家气象中心自筹资金项目“2007年极端暴雨事件成因分析及 预报技术研究”
引用文本:
李娟,朱国富,2008.直接同化卫星辐射率资料在暴雨预报中的应用研究[J].气象,34(12):36-43.
Li Juan,Zhu Guofu,2008.Application Analysis of Direct Assimilation of Satellite Radiation Data on Hea vy Rain Forecasting [J].Meteor Mon,34(12):36-43.