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投稿时间：2008-10-09
投稿时间：2008-10-09
中文摘要: 为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品，对2008年6—8月T639 模式进行天气学检验，并与ECM
WF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明：3种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变
具有较好的预报性能。综合来看，ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况；日本模式
和T639模式稍差，稳定性不如ECMWF模式；特别是T639模式对0808号台风凤凰（FUNG-W
ONG）路径及强度的预报与实况差异较大，而ECMWF及日本模式预报相对准确。
Abstract:In order to better use the T639 products, some synoptic verifications about its medium range forecasting in 2008 summer are made in compariso
n with the counterparts of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that three mo
dels have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large scale circula
tion evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude area. As a whole,
ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T63
9 and Japan models. Especially, T639 model has a large error in predicting path
and intensity of typhoon FUNG WONG, whereas ECMWF and Japan models are relative
ly accurate.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Cai Xiangning | National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
蔡芗宁,2008.2008年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(11):111-116.
Cai Xiangning,2008.The Performance Verification of the Medium range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from June to August 2008[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):111-116.
蔡芗宁,2008.2008年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(11):111-116.
Cai Xiangning,2008.The Performance Verification of the Medium range Forecast for T639 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from June to August 2008[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):111-116.