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气象:2008,34(10):27-33
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0713号台风韦帕路径预报难点分析
(1.福建省气象台,福州350001;2.福建省气象科技服务中心)
Analysis on the Difficulties of Typhoon Wipha (0713) Path Forecast
(1.Fujian Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou 350001;2.Fujian Meteorological Technology Service Center)
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投稿时间:2008-04-21    修订日期:2008-05-22
中文摘要: 0713号台风韦帕各家都预报在台湾岛北部海上北折,在120°E以东向偏北方向移动,与 台风实际在浙闽交界处登陆后在120°E以西转向北上路径存在较大误差。为认识这种预报偏 差的原因,应用各种资料对影响台风韦帕北折的可能原因进行探讨。指出:(1)欧洲 气象中心天气形势预报误差较大,西风槽底预报比实况偏南,是本次台风路径转折预报失误 的主要原因。(2)欧亚500hPa高度场为两脊一槽形势,西风指数从低指数向高指数演变和 副热带高压处周期性加强均不利于台风韦帕在台湾东北部海区折向偏北方向移动。(3)地 形的影响造成的趋岸左折和港湾“吸引”,以及动力场和热力场的分布均有利于台风韦帕在 台湾东北部海区折向偏西方向移动。
中文关键词: 台风路径  预报难点  环境场  地形影响
Abstract:There is a big discrepancy of typhoon Wipha (0713) tracks forecasts by various models. The forecasts say that the typhoon Wipha (0713) would turn nor thward in the sea of northern Taiwan Island towards bias N in the east of 120°E , but the actual path is in the west of 120°E after landing at the coast of Zhe jiang and Fujian provinces. To understand the reasons for this discrepancy, ever y kind of data is applied to study the possible causes. It shows that (1) the er rors in the numerical prediction product are the main reasons. (2) One ridge tw o troughs situation in the Eurasian 500 hPa height field, the westerly index evo lution from low to high and the subtropical high index periodical enhancement ar e disadvantageous to typhoon Wipha turning bias N in the sea northeast of Taiwan . (3) The terrain impact shore left changing and Harbor attraction,as well as dynamic field and thermal field distribution led typhoon Wipha to the west in the northeast sea of Taiwan.
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刘爱鸣,林毅,黄美金,王怀俊,2008.0713号台风韦帕路径预报难点分析[J].气象,34(10):27-33.
Liu Aiming,Lin Yi,Huang Meijin,Wang Huaijun,2008.Analysis on the Difficulties of Typhoon Wipha (0713) Path Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,34(10):27-33.