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气象:2008,34(8):112-118
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2008年3—5月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Verification of Medium range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from March to May 2008
(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2008-06-13    
中文摘要: 我国3—5月冷空气活动频繁,温度变化剧烈,且沙尘天气频发。为检验数值模式的预报效果 ,积累预报经验,对T213模式96小时预报产品进行检验分析,并与ECMWF及日本模式的 预报结果进行对比分析。结果表明:T213、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报性能均较好。相对 地,ECMWF在对中高纬度大型环流的调整及对850hPa温度的预报方面能力稍强。另外,选取2 008年5月26—28日发生在我国的一次沙尘天气个例,分析发现日本模式对于引发此次沙尘天 气的地面强风的中期预报指示意义较好,T213模式稍差。
Abstract:From March to May every year, frequent cold fronts are usually seen in China. Be cause of active cold fronts during these 3 months, weather in china is character ized by sharp temperatures fluctuations and frequent dusty weather conditions. I n order to examine the forecasting effect of numerical model and accumulate for ecasting experiences, the 96 hour forecasting product of T213 model were examin ed and analyzed and also compared its forecasting result with ECMWF model and Ja pan model. The result is: ECMWF model is more effective in midi range forecast. As for adjusting macro scale circulation and forecasting temperatures at 850hP a the ECMWF model has stronger predictive ability than the other 2 models. In ad dition, a dusty weather process occurred on 26-28 May 2008 was chosen, as a case study. Through analyzing this case, we found that Japan models were more effect ive than the other 2 models in mid range forecast of the strong surface winds, which caused this dusty weather process.
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王超,2008.2008年3—5月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(8):112-118.
Wang Chao,2008.Verification of Medium range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from March to May 2008[J].Meteor Mon,34(8):112-118.