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气象:2008,34(7):61-67
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北京奥运会期间极端天气的气候统计分析
(北京市气象局, 100089)
Climatic and Statistical Analysis on Extreme Weather Events During Beijing Olympic Games
(Beijing Meteorological Bureau, 100089)
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投稿时间:2008-01-29    修订日期:2008-03-31
中文摘要: 利用1971—2007年观象台、海淀、丰台、朝阳和顺义的气象要素资料,对北京奥运期间8月8 —24日的极端天气事件进行了统计分析,结果表明:观象台极端最高气温为37.3℃,年T max>36.0℃的出现概率为5%,呈明显的上升趋势,上升率为 0.69℃/10年,目前 处在偏高期。城郊5站Tmax≥33℃的平均日数为2.8天,变化趋势基本一致,目前 处在日数偏多期,每年平均高温闷热(Tmax≥32℃且平均相对湿度≥55%)天气 日数为4.7天。观象台日最大降雨量中出现雨量≥25mm·d-1的概率高达68%,城郊5站 雨量≥25mm的平均降雨日为1.1天,观象台日最大降雨强度的最大值为156.2mm·d-1 。城郊5站平均雷暴日数为3.7天,上述三要素均处在低值期。10分钟平均风速≥7m·s- 1以上的大风日数城郊5站为1.2天,目前处在风速较小期。城郊5站平均大雾日数为0.7天 ,观象台低能见度≤2000m的日数从1990年代平均3.9天降到2000-2007年的1.5天,目前处在 日数较少期。
中文关键词: 极端天气事件  低能见度  趋势
Abstract:Beijing 2008 Olympic Games will be held on 8-24 August. The extreme weather even ts in this period were analyzed by using the data of Beijing Observatory, Chaoya ng, Fengtai Shunyi Meteorological Stations from August 8-24(1971-2007), and Hai dian Meteorological Station(1975-2007). The results show that the maximum high temperature (Tmax) at Beijing Observatory was 37.3℃ and the occurrence probabi lity of annual Tmax>36.0℃ is 5%. The annual variation of Tmax obviously a ppears an ascending trend with the rate of 0.69℃/10a. It means that the tempera ture nowadays is in a relatively higher period, the annual mean days of Tmax≥33 ℃ at five stations is 2.8 with same increasing trend. The annual mean muggy days (Tm ax≥32.0℃ with the relative humidity ≥55%) is 4.7. The occurrence probability of daily rainfall (R≥25mm) at Beijing Observatory can reach to as high as 68%, the mean number of raining days (R≥25mm) for five stations is 1.1. The maximum daily precipitation intensity is 156.2mm/d. The mean day of thunderstorm is 3.7. These three factors mentioned above are in a lower-value periods. The mean day of strong wind (averaged wind speed ≥7m/s in 10 min) at five stations is 1.2 , and is also in a slower-speed period. The foggy day is 0.7. The day of low v isibility ≤2000m at Beijing Observatory goes down from 3.9(1990-1999) to 1.5(20 00-2007), also in a fewer-occurrence period.
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丁德平,王春华,李迅,刘燕,刘一芬,谢庄,2008.北京奥运会期间极端天气的气候统计分析[J].气象,34(7):61-67.
Ding Deping,Wang Chunhua,Li Xun,Liu Yan,Liu Yifen,Xie Zhuang,2008.Climatic and Statistical Analysis on Extreme Weather Events During Beijing Olympic Games[J].Meteor Mon,34(7):61-67.