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气象:2008,34(6):17-25
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北京奥运演练精细化预报方法及其检验评估
(北京市气象局, 100089)
Refined Forecast Techniques and Related Verification During 2007 Olympic Drilling
(Beijing Meteorological Bureau, 100089)
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投稿时间:2007-12-19    修订日期:2008-05-27
中文摘要: 2007年北京奥运演练期间精细化场馆客观预报方法,即支持向量机方法(SVM)和半 周期函数拟合(HPFF)预报方法,为场馆精细化预报产品的制作提供了有力的技术支撑。 利用2007年8月1—26日国 家体育场、顺义水上中心等5个奥运场馆的5种地面气象要素(气温、相对湿度、风向、风 速、和3小时累积降水量)观测资料,对SVM和HPFF客观预报方法以及预报员在客观方法基础 上制作的3天逐3小时预报进行了检验评估。结果表明:(1)两种客观方法相比较,HPFF方法对 于预报连续变化的气象要素(如气温、相对湿度和风速)的精细预报比SVM方法 预报技巧高;而对不连续变化的变量(如:风向)的预报技巧低于SVM方法。 (2)预报员制作精细要素预报在很大程度上依靠客观方法。预报员对于气温、相对湿度和风速的预报技巧略高于客观方法,对于降水和风向的预报技巧与客观方法相当。尽管预报员对客观方法的修正能力比较有限,但 具有对两种客观方法结果做出择优选择的综合判别能力;(3)预报员0~63小时 气温预报平均绝对误差约为1.8℃,气温预报误差≤1℃的准确率在43%左右,预报误差随 预报时效变化不大;0~24小时相对湿度预报平均绝对误差约为10%,相对湿度预报误差≤10% 的准确率是60%,误差随预报时效而有所增大;0~63小时风向预报准确率约20%, 预报准确率随预报时效变化不大;0~63小时风速预报平均绝对误差在0.8~1.4m·s -1之间。
Abstract:During Beijing 2007 Olympic drilling the refined objective forecast techniques, i.e. theSupport Vector Machine (SVM) and the Half Periodic Function Fit (HPFF), gave a powerful technical support for the venues refined forecasts. Using the five weather elements including temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, wind speed, and 3 hour rainfall observati ons at different Olympic Game venues, the 3 hour products of SVM and H PFF refined objective forecast and forecaster's forecast for next 3 d ays at five different Olympic Game venues are verified. The results show that: (1) the continuous variables (e.g. temperature, relative humidity , wind speed) HPFF forecast skill is higher than SVM, and for the noncontinuous variables(e.g. wind direction) less. (2) The objective forecast techniques are t he basis of the forecasters producing refined forecast products. For temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, forecaster forecast skill is a little higher than the objective techniques; and for rainfall and wind direction, forecaster and t he objective techniques have not much difference on forecast skill. Although the forecasters have the limited ability of modification for the objective techniqu es, but have the comprehensive differentiation ability of the best choice for two objective products. (3) The mean absolute error from 0h to 63h valid time of the temperature that forecaster produced is about 1.8℃, the forecast accuracy of tem perature when considering the absolute difference between forecast and observati on is less and equal 1℃ is around 43%, and forecast error has no evident change with increasing valid time. the mean absolute error of relative humidity (0~24 h) is about 10%, the forecast accuracy of relative humidity when considering the absolute difference between forecast and observation is less and equal 10% is a round 60%, and forecast error has evident change with increasing valid time. The mean absolute error of wind direction (0~63h) is about 20%, the forecast accur acy has no obvious change with increasing valid time; the mean absolute error of wind speed is between 0.8m·s-1 and 1.4m·s-1.
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基金项目:本文得到中国气象局2007年业务建设项目《2007年奥运演练精细化业务系统》和科技部奥 运科技专项课题《北京奥运短时临近预报实时业务系统研发》(2005BA904B05)的支持
引用文本:
郭虎,王建捷,杨波,时少英,魏东,孙继松,李靖,2008.北京奥运演练精细化预报方法及其检验评估[J].气象,34(6):17-25.
Guo Hu,Wang Jianjie,Yang Bo,Shi Shaoying,Wei Dong,Sun Jisong,Li Jing,2008.Refined Forecast Techniques and Related Verification During 2007 Olympic Drilling[J].Meteor Mon,34(6):17-25.