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气象:2008,34(4):22-29
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东北区域暴雪天气分析及数值模拟
(黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨 150030)
Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Area Snowstorms in Northeast China
(Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory, Haerbin 150030)
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投稿时间:2007-11-13    修订日期:2008-02-04
中文摘要: 2007年2月14日和3月6日中国东北先后出现暴雪过程,降雪过程范围之广、强度 之大都超出了有历史记录以来的极限,给国民经济和人民生活造成极大的损失。在收集大量 降水、T213和地面高空气象报告等资料基础上,分析了东北东部这两场大暴雪过程的环流成 因并利用GRAPES进行了数值模拟。这两次暴雪过程由于500hPa上空冷空气强度和入侵路径的 差异,分别是由蒙古低槽东移和西南涡东北上(对应地面为蒙古气旋和江淮气旋)引起的,后 者的天气形势与东北夏季暴雨的一种形势有很大的相似。GRAPES对这两次暴雪过程模拟的结 果表明,不仅能够成功地预报天气尺度的主要环流形势演变和影响系统的移动路径,还能 够预报出与主要降雪区域相对应的低空中尺度辐合系统,比仅用高空观测报告分析的结果有 很大的改善;对降雪强度变化和落区移动状况也能够很好地作出预报,但是有时预报量有偏 大的弱点。可以认为GRAPES提供的各种预报产品对日常业务实时应用是很有价值的。
中文关键词: 区域暴雪  天气成因  数值模拟  GRAPES
Abstract:The area snowstorm is a major severe weather in northeast China because it possi bly causes enormous losses. There are two area snowstorms in northeast China dur ing February 14-15 and March 4-6 of 2007. Their precipitation intensity and rang e are all greater than the historical records. By using basic data of precipitat ion, T213, surface and radiosonde observations, the synoptic situation of the tw o area snowstorms are analyzed. In addition, with the new generation numerical predi ction model GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System) , the two area snowstorms are numerically simulated, and the results are compare d withthe observational data. The results of analysis and simulation show that t he snowstorm during February 14 15 is caused by eastbound trough over Mongolia (Menggu c yclone) and the snowstorm during March 4 6 is caused by northeastward vortex ov er Southwest China (Jianghuai cyclone) owing to the difference in the strength a nd moving route of cold air mass. In a sense the second is resemblance to a weat her situation of storm rainfall in the summer. In these processes, the major syn optic system not only is simulated by GRAPES model successfully, such as formati on and movement of southwest vortex, but the mesoscale convergence zone or cente r is simulated more precisely than observational analysis. But the simulation va lues of the precipitation are greater than the observations. The numerical resul ts show that GRAPES model has a good ability to simulate area snowstorms in North east China, and is of good reference to the operational forecasting.
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白人海,张志秀,高煜中,2008.东北区域暴雪天气分析及数值模拟[J].气象,34(4):22-29.
Bai Renhai,Zhang Zhixiu,Gao Yuzhong,2008.Synoptic Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Area Snowstorms in Northeast China[J].Meteor Mon,34(4):22-29.