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气象:2008,34(3):106-111
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决策树技术分析气象因子对电力负荷预测的影响
(1.河北省保定市气象局, 071000;2.河北省气象与生态环境实验室;3.华北电力大学)
Influence of Meteorological Factors on Load Forecasting Based on the Decision Tree
(1.Baoding Meteorological Office, Hebei Province 071000;2.Hebei Province Ke y Lab for Meteorology and Ecoenvironment;3.North China Electric Power Univ ersity)
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投稿时间:2007-09-29    修订日期:2008-01-29
中文摘要: 基于决策树技术,对气象因子和日电力负荷的最高、最低值、平均值进行联合建模, 量化气象因子对电力负荷的影响,从而确立一种有效的基于气象因子的短期电力负荷预测方 法,用以生成日特征负荷决策树预测模型。通过该模型,结合预测日的气象、属性(日期、 节日等)等信息,可进行日特征负荷的预测。预测结果表明,该模型具有自动化程度高、预 测结果准确率高的特性。以河北省保定市气象数据和电力负荷数据为例进行了训练和预测, 研究结果证明这种方法能较大地提高日电力负荷预测的精度。
中文关键词: 决策树  气象因子  负荷预测  ID3算法
Abstract:Based on the decision tree and combined with the meteorological factor s and the highest, lowest and average of electrical load, a model was establi shed to measure the influence of meteorological factors on the load. An effectiv e short term forecasting method was put forward to establish the forecasting mo del of daily characteristic load decision tree. Daily characteristic load is forecasted according to the model and the date forecasted information such as wea ther,attributes (date, workday or weekend). The forecasted results show that the proposed method has high automation and high accuracy. The method applies the data of meteorological factors and load of Baoding in Hebei Province to train an d forecast,the results show that the new method can largely improve the precisi on of load forecasts.
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高霞,曾新,马骋,2008.决策树技术分析气象因子对电力负荷预测的影响[J].气象,34(3):106-111.
Gao Xia,Zeng Xin,Ma Cheng,2008.Influence of Meteorological Factors on Load Forecasting Based on the Decision Tree[J].Meteor Mon,34(3):106-111.