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气象:2008,34(3):78-85
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影响山东的热带气旋年际和年代际变化
(1.南京大学大气科学系, 210093;2.山东省潍坊市气象局)
The Inter annual and Inter decadal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Affecting Shandong Province
(1.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, 210093;2.Weifang Meteorological Office,Shandong Province)
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投稿时间:2007-05-25    修订日期:2007-11-22
中文摘要: 利用1949—2006年热带气旋年鉴资料对58年来影响山东的热带气旋频数和强度,以及热带气 旋引起的暴雨和大风进行了气候统计学分析。分析表明:7月下旬至8月下旬是热带气旋影响 山东的主要时段。影响山东的热带气旋具有明显的年代际变化,并存在显著的2.4年和5年左 右的周期变化,但影响山东的热带气旋强度呈明显减弱趋势,年代际变化不明显;8月份影 响山东的热带气旋最多,极易发生洪涝和强风灾害,所造成的暴雨和大风的次数与 热带气旋频数的变化较为一致。通过分析影响山东热带气旋活动与太平洋海温和西太平洋副 高的关系,指出,北太平洋海温关键区以及西太平洋副高的气候变化对热带气旋活动有着很 重要的作用。
中文关键词: 热带气旋  频数  强度  谱分析  暴雨大风
Abstract:Based on tropical cyclone yearbook data from 1949 to 2003, the climate character istics, such as inter decadal variation, period of tropical cyclone's frequency , rainstorm and strong wind, intensity characteristics, are analyzed. Main resul ts are as follows: Tropical cyclone affecting Shandong Province is from the last ten day of July to August and its inter decadal variation obeys the Student's t test; The marked periodic variation of every 2.4 years and 5 years is found according to power spectrum analysis. It shows obvious weakening tendency about tropical cyclone's intensity by using Kendall test. It also shows that August is the strongest month in a year for rainstorm frequency and intensity, and floo d disaster is more easily occurred during this month. It is distinct for freque ncy's inter decadal variation of tropical cyclone causing rainstormand strong wind. Marked period exists about annual average precipitation and st rong wind. At the same time, the cause of the variation is discussed.
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基金项目:本文由国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(编号2006CB403600 )和国家自然科学基金项目(编号40775043)联合资助
引用文本:
高晓梅,江静,马守强,徐文正,2008.影响山东的热带气旋年际和年代际变化[J].气象,34(3):78-85.
Gao Xiaomei,Jiang Jing,Ma Shouqiang,Xu Wenzheng,2008.The Inter annual and Inter decadal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Affecting Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,34(3):78-85.