本文已被：浏览 964次 下载 3177次
投稿时间：2007-03-29 修订日期：2007-11-20
投稿时间：2007-03-29 修订日期：2007-11-20
中文摘要: 美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP) 和国家大气中心(NCAR) 的全球分析资料,不仅应用于气
候模拟和预测研究中而且也可作为卫星遥感云检测的初始场资料。通过对2005年NCEP逐6小
时全球最终分析资料（FNL）与中国753个台站实测资料的地表温度和地面1.5m高气温进行Cr
essman插值, 从时次变化和空间变化等方面系统地分析和比较了这一年间NCEP分析值与中国
区域内观测值之间的差异， 得到结果： NCEP分析地表温度较观测值普遍偏低, 而地面气温
NCEP分析值的空间分布大致表现为在北部地区大于观测值、而南部地区小于观测值；就2005
年季节变化而言,NCEP分析值在夏季比冬季符合得好,而在我国东南部比东北、西北符合得好
；[JP]从时次上看,地温和气温都呈现出随着时次推进（从2时到20时），正值区（NCEP分
析值-实测值 > 0）减弱、负值区（NCEP分析值-实测值 < 0）加强的趋势；而通过标准化均
方根误差的分析，可以知道气温的NCEP分析资料在我国可行性比地温要好。
中文关键词: NCEP逐时FNL分析资料 标准化均方根误差 时次比较分析 季节比较分析
Abstract:The NCEP/NCAR analysis data is widely used not only in climate change simu
lation and prediction research but also in cloud detection of remote sensing are
a as initial data. An systematic inter comparison
and analysis by Cressman interpolation is made between the NCEP Global Final Ana
lysis (FNL) dataset and 753 station observed land surface temperature and 1.5 m
above air temperature data over China in 2005 in terms of time, season and geo
g
raphical position. Through this comparison, some differences existed between the
NCEP and the observed data can be identified.Comparison with the observed data
, land surface temperature of the NCEP data is lower than the observed data in g
eneral, while 1.5m above air temperature is overestimated in the north of China
and is generally underestimated in the south. In terms of season and geographic
al position variation, the reliability of the NCEP dataset is better in summer t
han in winter and is better in the southeast than in the northeast and northwest
. From the point of diurnal variation (from 2:00 to 20:00 in local time) in land
and air temperatures there is a tendency that the positive value areas (NCEP an
alysis>observations) shrink and the negative value areas expand. The normalized
RMSE shows that the practicability of air temperature NCEP re analysis for Chi
na is better than the land temperature NCEP re analysis.
keywords: CEP Global Final Analysis (FNL) data normalized RMSE data inter comparison and analysis in terms of time and season
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:国家973“我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预期的理论和方法研究
”项目《探测中尺度暴雨系统参数三维结构的定量遥感理论和方法及其在中尺度资料同化中
的应用研究》2004CB418305
引用文本：
周青,赵凤生,高文华,2008.NCEP/NCAR逐时分析与中国实测地表温度和地面气温对比分析[J].气象,34(2):83-91.
Zhou Qing,Zhao Fengsheng,Gao Wenhua,2008.Comparison and Analysis Between NCEP/NCAR Every 6 hours Analysis Land Surface and Air Temperature and 753 Chinese Stations’ Observation in 2005[J].Meteor Mon,34(2):83-91.
周青,赵凤生,高文华,2008.NCEP/NCAR逐时分析与中国实测地表温度和地面气温对比分析[J].气象,34(2):83-91.
Zhou Qing,Zhao Fengsheng,Gao Wenhua,2008.Comparison and Analysis Between NCEP/NCAR Every 6 hours Analysis Land Surface and Air Temperature and 753 Chinese Stations’ Observation in 2005[J].Meteor Mon,34(2):83-91.