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投稿时间：2006-12-26 修订日期：2007-11-17
投稿时间：2006-12-26 修订日期：2007-11-17
中文摘要: 利用1961—2004年逐日降水资料，对湖南极端强降水事件气候变化趋势和突变特征进行分
析。结果表明：近44年来，极端强降水量和日数呈增加趋势。1993年是显著增加的突变点，
年平均极端强降水量与日数1994—2004年比1961—1993年分别增加126.4mm和2.05d。极端强
降水年平均强度趋势不明显，无明显突变，但1993年之后一直处于上升趋势，1994—2004年
比1961—1993年增加了2.25mm?d-1。间隔1～5d的极端强降水事件除湘西和永州南部
外，大部分地区呈增加趋势，洞庭湖区和湘江流域增加显著。极端强降水事件发生时间主要集中在6
月中下旬和5月上中旬，1990年代以来，7月中旬也是极端强降水事件频发时段。
Abstract:According to the data of daily precipitation in Hunan from 1961 to 200
4, the climatic changes and the catastrophe of extreme precipitation events are
analysed. The results show that the amount and days of extreme precipitation ha
s significantly increased in the recent 44 years. 1993 is the mutational site o
f significant increase. Between 1994-2004 and 1991-1993 the difference of extrem
e precipitation amount is 126.4 mm and the difference of extreme precipitation
days is 2.05 d. The intensity of extreme precipitation has no significant mutat
ion but there is an upward trend after 1993. The increase of the intensity of e
xtreme precipitation is 2.25mm?d-1 between 1994-2004 and 1991-1993.
In addition to the south of Yongzhou and the west of Hunan,the spacing from one to five days of extreme precipitation events showed an upw
ard trend in the most areas, the Dongting Lake and the Xiangjiang River Basin in
creased significantly. Extreme precipitation events mainly occurred in the secon
d and third ten days of June and the first and second ten days of May. Since 199
0s, extreme precipitation events frequently occurred in the second ten days of
July.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:湖南省科技厅“气候变暖背景下湖南省极端天气和气候事件特征分析及趋势预测
”（05FJ4064）资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Luo Bailiang | Institute of Hunan Meteorology, Changsha 410007 |
| Zhang Chao | Institute of Hunan Meteorology, Changsha 410007 |
| Lin Hao | Institute of Hunan Meteorology, Changsha 410007 |
引用文本：
罗伯良,张超,林浩,2008.近40年湖南省极端强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征[J].气象,34(1):80-85.
Luo Bailiang,Zhang Chao,Lin Hao,2008.Characteristics of Climatic Changes and Catastrophe of Extreme Precipitation in Hunan in Recent 40 Years[J].Meteor Mon,34(1):80-85.
罗伯良,张超,林浩,2008.近40年湖南省极端强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征[J].气象,34(1):80-85.
Luo Bailiang,Zhang Chao,Lin Hao,2008.Characteristics of Climatic Changes and Catastrophe of Extreme Precipitation in Hunan in Recent 40 Years[J].Meteor Mon,34(1):80-85.