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投稿时间：2007-06-06 修订日期：2007-08-15
投稿时间：2007-06-06 修订日期：2007-08-15
中文摘要: 利用柳州市暴雨积涝灾害仿真模型，对不同类型降水过程造成的积涝灾害进行了数
值模拟，并对柳州市积涝灾害风险进行了初步的量化评估。结果表明：大暴雨以下降水，积
涝灾害风险以Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级为主，降水量级达大暴雨以上时，出现Ⅲ级的积涝灾害达25%以上
，当降水量R＞150mm时，Ⅲ级达37%。积水深度实测值与模拟值绝对误差主要分布在20c
m以内，大暴雨以下降水，误差值主要分布在10cm以内，随着降水强度增加，绝对误差值也
随之增大。每年第一场暴雨造成的积涝灾害往往比模拟结果严重，而久晴转暴雨过程则相反
。此模型
Abstract:The water logging disasters caused by the different types of rain are
simulated with the water logging simulation model. The risks caused by the wat
e
r logging are also primarily estimated. The results show that the water logging
disasters are almost gradeⅠ or Ⅱ when the rainfall is below 100mm. When the
rai
nfall is above 100mm and 150mm the water logging disasters of grade Ⅲ
reach
25% and 37%, res
pectively. The absolute errors between water logging values and simulated values
are within 20cm, but the absolute errors increase up with rainfall intensity. T
he
water logging disaster caused by the first heavy rain is more serious than the
simulated result. But the case is quite the contrary that the heavy rain occurs
after long and continuous fine weather, for example lasting 19 days. The above
results can provide some references for expanding forecast and service field of
urban disasters as well as risk estimation of water logging disaster.
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引用文本：
郑传新,米浦强,陈剑兵,刘梅,2007.柳州市积涝过程模拟及灾害风险评估[J].气象,33(11):72-75.
Zheng Chuanxin,Mi Puqiang,Chen Jianbing,Liu Mei,2007.Numerical Simulation and Risk Evaluation of Rainfall Water Logging in Liuzhou City[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):72-75.
郑传新,米浦强,陈剑兵,刘梅,2007.柳州市积涝过程模拟及灾害风险评估[J].气象,33(11):72-75.
Zheng Chuanxin,Mi Puqiang,Chen Jianbing,Liu Mei,2007.Numerical Simulation and Risk Evaluation of Rainfall Water Logging in Liuzhou City[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):72-75.