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气象:2007,33(11):58-64
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湖北省近45年降水气候变化及其对旱涝的影响
(1.武汉区域气候中心, 430074;2.华中农业大学)
Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics in Hubei Province and Their Influence on Flood/Drought in the Last 45 Years
(1.Wuhan Regional Climate Center, 430074;2.Huazhong Agricultural University)
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投稿时间:2007-03-12    修订日期:2007-09-13
中文摘要: 从气候倾向率、旱涝倾斜度以及强降水过程次数与强度等方面,对湖北省72个气象 台站近45 年雨量观测资料及来自于中国农业部信息中心网站洪涝干旱受灾面积等数据进行了分析。 研究结果表明:近45年来,随着全球气候变化,湖北东部,尤其是江汉平原东南部的年雨量 呈增加趋势,而年降雨天数有减少的趋势;年雨量的增加主要是大雨或强降水增多造成的; 湖北省强降水过程及其中心强度呈增多和加强趋势。雨量增多、雨强加大、围湖造田、江河 水位高出江汉平原地表以及江汉平原自然下沉等因素加大加快了旱涝灾害程度与频率,应当 引起当地政府
中文关键词: 降水  倾向率  倾斜度  旱涝灾害
Abstract:The rainfall data, which were accumulated from the 72 meteorological sta tions of Hubei Province from 1960 to 2004, and the data on the drought stricken and flood stricken area, which were published on the webpage from the Ministr y of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China (zzys.agri.gov.cn), are anal yzed and discussed. The investigation is based on following several aspects of c limate, for example the climatic tendency, the skewness of drought and flood as well as the frequency and intensity of the heavy precipitation occurrence. It ca n be found that in the last 45 years the annual rainfall amounts have a strong i ncreasing trend in the east of Hubei Province, especially in the southeast of th e Jianghan Plain, while the annual rain days are decreasing. The increase of the rainfall amounts is mainly result from increasing of the heavy rain or rainst orm. At the same time the intensity and the frequency of durative heavy precip itation eventsincrease also in this region annually. The analysis on the relationship between the drought stricken or flood stricken area and the skewness of drought or flo od indicates that climate disasters result mainly from unbalanced spatial and te mporal distribution of precipitation. Furthermore all these factors, such as the increase in rainfall amount and intensity of rainfall, the decrease in lake are a, the natural sinking of the Jianghan Plain, etc., quicken the intensity an d frequency of drought or flood, on which the local governments should focused.
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基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2007-21)
引用文本:
刘可群,陈正洪,张礼平,刘安国,2007.湖北省近45年降水气候变化及其对旱涝的影响[J].气象,33(11):58-64.
Liu Kequn,Chen Zhenghong,Zhang Liping,Liu Anguo,2007.Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics in Hubei Province and Their Influence on Flood/Drought in the Last 45 Years[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):58-64.