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气象:2007,33(11):3-8
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关于提高天气预报准确率的几个问题
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
The Ways to Enhance the Weather Forecast Skill
(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2007-08-31    修订日期:2007-09-05
中文摘要: 提高天气预报准确率是气象业务的一项基础性、系统性的工作。作者从天气预报的 业务技术体系着眼,借鉴发达国家的发展经验,分析了提高天气预报准确率的若干问题,提 出了发展精细化的预报技术体系,将数值预报模式、天气学预报方法、动力诊断和统计释用 及基于卫星和雷达等现代探测技术的短时临近预警技术相结合的预报技术路线;提出了有利 于精细化预报的业务体系,即发展以定量降水预报、台风预报和灾害性天气短时临近预警为 重点的专业化预报业务体系;指出专家型预报队伍的建设是提高预报业务水平的关键环节。
Abstract:A topic discussed is the ways to enhance the weather for ecasts skill. Many kinds of factors were related with the weather forecast skill . Scientifically, it is impossible to give the perfect weather forecast because of the existence of probabilities uncertainties. However, it is needed to improv e our skill on the weather forecast in order to meet the meteorological service needs better. By sharing the experience of advanced meteorological centers of th e world, the ways were explored to enhance the skill of weather forecast scienti fically and technically. Firstly, different advanced techniques and methods shou ld be developed and improved to support the weather forecast, not only the numer ical weather prediction model, but also the synoptic method, model interpretatio n scheme and dynamical analysis. The related scientific and technological effort s should be made on this area. Secondly, different specialized forecast, such as quantitative precipitation forecast, storm scale weather forecast and the typho on forecast, should be set up on the national level center to enhance the skill specially and to give strong guidance to the lower level weather forecast sectio n. Thirdly, a forecaster expert team should be brought up both by routine foreca st practice and scientific practice.
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矫梅燕,2007.关于提高天气预报准确率的几个问题[J].气象,33(11):3-8.
Jiao Meiyan,2007.The Ways to Enhance the Weather Forecast Skill[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):3-8.