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投稿时间：2007-01-15 修订日期：2007-03-23
投稿时间：2007-01-15 修订日期：2007-03-23
中文摘要: 利用1951—2006年6—8月降水资料计算了川渝地区旱涝指数Z指数，确定出该区域
旱涝等级及其对应年份，分析这一带历年旱涝情况及年际变化特征，并用相关和合成分析法分
析旱涝与海温的关系。结果表明，1950年代末至1970年代前期，这一带地区以旱为主，3个
重旱年有2年出现在这个时段内；1970年代末至2003年，旱涝年均有，但以涝为主，2006年
则出现了1951年以来最旱的年份。旱涝指数与SST的相关分析显示Z指数与前期SST，特别是1
—3月SST有较好的相关关系，Z指数与赤道中东太平洋SST显著正相关。重涝年赤道中东太
平洋广大海域SST呈明显的正距平，而重旱年则为大范围SST负距平。2006年1—3月赤道中东
太平洋海温呈明显负距平、南太平洋20°S以南到40°S之间海域海温呈显著正距平有利于川
渝地区出现严重干旱。
Abstract:Summer floods and droughts from 1951 to 2006 in Chongqing and East Sich
uan
are analyzed here by using Z index. It shows that droughts are popular from the
end of 1950s to early 1970s, 2 of the 3 most heavy years occur during this peri
od. There are both droughts and floods from the end of 1970s to 2003 ，but flood
s are more common. 2006 is the most serious drought year in these 56 years from
1951 to 2006. Relation analyses between SST and Z index shows that there exists
good relativity between Z index and SST during January and March. Z index has ob
viously positive relativity with SST in eastern and medial equatorial pacific oc
ean. In heavy floods year SST anomalies are prominently positive. On contrast i
n droughts years, SST anomalies are obviously negative. Negative anomalies from
January and March are contributable for the serious droughts in 2006.
keywords: index Z floods and drought SST
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引用文本：
鲍媛媛,康志明,金荣花,李峰,2007.川渝地区夏季旱涝与海温异常浅析[J].气象,33(5):89-93.
Bao Yuanyuan,Kang Zhiming,Jin Ronghua,Li Feng,2007.Analysis of Floods and Droughts in Chongqing and East Sichuan[J].Meteor Mon,33(5):89-93.
鲍媛媛,康志明,金荣花,李峰,2007.川渝地区夏季旱涝与海温异常浅析[J].气象,33(5):89-93.
Bao Yuanyuan,Kang Zhiming,Jin Ronghua,Li Feng,2007.Analysis of Floods and Droughts in Chongqing and East Sichuan[J].Meteor Mon,33(5):89-93.